ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the shear maps, it appears the issue is upper-level shear to the north and northwest. Mid-level shear is not an issue.

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at that band to the east it could easily wrap around the center and we may have steady strengthening after that

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[AdamFirst]

Erika reminded me to update the address on my renter's insurance policy for my dorm room.

Always gotta be prepared.

[gatorcane]

So there are many examples of systems that greatly intensified once in the Bahamas (or getting west of Hispaniola longitude).
There are some examples of systems that do not strengthen either. 1941 and 1888 were el nino years. The hurricane 5 1932 track is kindaof similar to what some models are showing.

[hohnywx]

Thanks for that info, gatorcane. Always interesting to see what storms have done in the past.

[Hurricaneman]

Well the best analog if you look at the models might be the 1928 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WPBWeather]

Well the best analog if you look at the models might be the 1928 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Please don't even joke about that one.

[jlauderdal]

Erika reminded me to update the address on my renter's insurance policy for my dorm room.

Always gotta be prepared.

Self insure the dorm room

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

Starting to sustain convection...

[Hurricaneman]

Well the best analog if you look at the models might be the 1928 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Please don't even joke about that one.

but that would be if it can stack if it can't stack disregard this post

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[toad strangler]

Well the best analog if you look at the models might be the 1928 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Please don't even joke about that one.

What joke? The track AS MODELED GENERALLY is nearly a carbon copy. That is all I took from that and it would be a good analog for that alone.

[Blown Away]

Gator, those are some great examples of storms that rapidly intensified in Bahamas and over the Gulf Stream... There has not been many examples of RI in my lifetime over the Gulf Stream, but during the early/mid 1900's there were many examples...

[tolakram]

Convection pretty far away from LLC.

[blp]

I am not saying this will be exactly like 05 Katrina because that was catastrophic and a nightmare that was unique and hopefully never happen again but there are some interesting parallels ten years later with regard to how it got to make landfall in S.Florida. Katrina as we know was TD 10 then opened up and became a new TD and TS status in the Bahamas and looked like it might curve up only to get caught by a ridge and driven to the SW over Miami as a CAT 1. I remember not putting up shutters because I was convinced that it would be a TS at landfall and come in around Dade/Broward line. I also remember the GFDL was the only model showing the SW turn (side note: GFDL used to be an awesome model that saw Ike SW dip in 2008 before any other model). Still very early but interesting parallels developing. My lesson was even a tropical storm needs to be respected when it is over the Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

Convection pretty far away from LLC.

Yeah, but it's to the south and east now, it was just to the south most of the day...

[ronjon]

1949 track looks the closest to current models and the calendar.

[Bocadude85]

Well the best analog if you look at the models might be the 1928 hurricane

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Please don't even joke about that one.

but that would be if it can stack if it can't stack disregard this post

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That 1928 hurricane being referenced is not the great 1928 Lake Okechobee hurricane.

[MGC]

As 57 alluded, Erika is destacked with plenty of dry air to its north. Yesterday evening Erika looked to be embedded in excellent atmospheric conditions for intensification. That all came to a crashing halt this morning as dry air was introduced into the cyclone. I only see modest intensification if any in the short term. Depending on track and Erika avoiding the Greater Antilles perhaps Erika can get cranking in the Bahamas. Either way, it will be an interesting few days of tropical cyclone watching......MGC

[Blown Away]

11pm 5 day point should be very close or on SFL??? Probably very close to Hobe Sound!!

[Hurricaneman]

The one that hit palm beach in 1928 not the big one that year