ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

I'm not the least bit surprised by the weakening, most of the models (even those showing eventual intensification) did show steady weakening for a day or two starting today. I can say that this is the most uncertain I've been about anything once it passes 60W.

I will add that when Danny had it's run-ins with dry air, most intensity models backed off quite a bit (and even NHC went down in forecast) but the earlier runs showing a stronger storm turned out to be correct, so I wouldn't discount that possibility here, that once the forecast weakening happens, the models simply have a more difficult time resolving the storm in the state it has weakened to especially if there are multiple "centers" with the system.

[northjaxpro]

As 57 alluded, Erika is destacked with plenty of dry air to its north. Yesterday evening Erika looked to be embedded in excellent atmospheric conditions for intensification. That all came to a crashing halt this morning as dry air was introduced into the cyclone. I only see modest intensification if any in the short term. Depending on track and Erika avoiding the Greater Antilles perhaps Erika can get cranking in the Bahamas. Either way, it will be an interesting few days of tropical cyclone watching......MGC

It sure will be MGC. Looks like we may have several upcoming late night hours watching this system. Have to keep the coffee ready for sure!!!

[gatorcane]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

I'm not the least bit surprised by the weakening, most of the models (even those showing eventual intensification) did show steady weakening for a day or two starting today. I can say that this is the most uncertain I've been about anything once it passes 60W.

I am very concerned that if Erika can avoid the Greater Antilles and pass just to the north of them, she will find a sweet spot with favorable conditions to intensify once the cyclone reaches 65-70 degrees Longitude.

[TheStormExpert]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I remember that very well. It was Cristobal, and the GFS kept showing a Florida hurricane hit while the Euro showed a recurve. Coincidentally it was around this same time too!

[ronjon]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree GC. The globals seem to have the environment pegged pretty well so far this season.

[tolakram]

Yep, we will all have to wait it out and see what happens. We don't know if a model has improved until after it's all done.

[Bocadude85]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do agree with you. However just last week the GFS and Euro were forecasting a major hurricane either striking or passing very near Hawaii. That was in the medium range, so even the global models can get it wrong from time to time. Not that this is the case this time around.

[blp]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering n


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree you got to get something at some point from at least one of the two models to start to believe the HWRF.
My preference would be the Euro but even if the GFS shows something that would make me believe it a little more.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree GC. The globals seem to have the environment pegged pretty well so far this season.

Not at all. The GFS and ECMWF specifically have been performing quite poorly this year, globally. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF forecast Danny to become a major hurricane. Systems in the East Pacific that were forecast to be low-grade tropical storms ended up becoming significant hurricanes (Guillermo and Hilda just to name two).

Erika is probably the trickiest storm of the year. You know it's bad when the chances of this becoming an open wave and dying over the Greater Antilles are very close to the chances of this becoming a major hurricane and impacting Florida.

[ronjon]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do agree with you. However just last week the GFS and Euro were forecasting a major hurricane either striking or passing very near Hawaii. That was in the medium range, so even the global models can get it wrong from time to time. Not that this is the case this time around.

Actually thought the Euro forecast the storm to go west of Hawaii - as it did.

[Bocadude85]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I do agree with you. However just last week the GFS and Euro were forecasting a major hurricane either striking or passing very near Hawaii. That was in the medium range, so even the global models can get it wrong from time to time. Not that this is the case this time around.

Actually thought the Euro forecast the storm to go west of Hawaii - as it did.

On Tuesday the 18th the Euro was forecasting a cat 2 hurricane to make landfall on the big island in just 5 days

[ozonepete]

Looking at the shear maps, it appears the issue is upper-level shear to the north and northwest. Mid-level shear is not an issue.

Hi craze. Be careful of how you describe those. I'm not sure what "upper-level shear" is supposed to be but on CIMSS, where they just call it wind shear, it is the difference of shear in the lowest layer (925 to 700 mb) and shear in the highest layer (300 to 150 mb) so it is shear thru a deep layer. Mid level shear is the shear from roughly 700 mb up to 300 mb. Shear in only the upper levels is not important because that's where the anticyclone is and shear that high doesn't directly influence the main cyclonic circulation below the anticyclone.

[ronjon]

My feeling is if the GFS continues to show nothing and if the Euro has another couple of runs of not much, I will be less concerned. My money is still with the global models on this one not the hurricane models. GFDL just isn't good and the HWRF while proving a pretty good model, needs some more proving. For example, last year I recall the HWRF showing a significant system into Florida heading WNW just about 5 days out or so while the GFS showed a weaker system recurving near Florida or along the east coast of Florida and the ECMWF had it recurving well east of Florida. I forgot what system, but the ECMWF got it right.

I still would lean more with the GFS/ECMWF consensus on this one and for now they are showing a weak system. I can't recall when that consensus was ever wrong in the medium-range which we are entering now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree GC. The globals seem to have the environment pegged pretty well so far this season.

Not at all. The GFS and ECMWF specifically have been performing quite poorly this year, globally. Neither the GFS nor the ECMWF forecast Danny to become a major hurricane. Systems in the East Pacific that were forecast to be low-grade tropical storms ended up becoming significant hurricanes (Guillermo and Hilda just to name two).

Erika is probably the trickiest storm of the year. You know it's bad when the chances of this becoming an open wave and dying over the Greater Antilles are very close to the chances of this becoming a major hurricane and impacting Florida.

I don't agree. Neither global has been gung ho on storm development this year which correctly mimics the hostile conditions. Both globals were the first to consistently show Danny sheared to death in the Caribbean.

[NDG]

Same here, if the GFS & ECMWF continue to show that Erika will be fairly weak as it moves WNW I am not that worried about it. The one model that makes me worry a little is the HWRF, it has been OK at times this season in the Atlantic.
There is still plenty of time to watch what Erika will do.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Inside the gap in convection it looks like a new CoC is spinning there. Is that the CoC or is that mid level spin? I can see it right inbetween the convection that split.

[Hurricaneman]

Inside the gap in convection it looks like a new CoC is spinning there. Is that the CoC or is that mid level spin? I can see it right inbetween the convection that split.

Thats the MLC the surface low is about 50miles NNE of it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

One thing we must never take for granted is that area down in the Bahamas/Florida Straits region . This is an area notorious for tropical cyclones to rapidly intensify. This area is so untapped from lack of activity in recent years in that you just wonder when the dynamite is going to get ignited down in that region. We just observed the 23rd anniversary of one of those storms which was just nearly remnants initially in that area, only to blow up into a Cat 5 at landfall in Homstead. This very week, we are observing the 10th anniversary of the other storm which initially entered weak traversing through the Bahamas and eventually saw that storm strengthen fast into a Cat 1 cane just as she made landfall in Miami.

So Erika may be a weakened cyclone in a few days time approaching that Bahamas region. BUT, let us really hope she doesn't follow in the footsteps of those legendary monster tropical cyclones I referenced in this post!!

[Hurricaneman]

Could it be possible that the current low dies and a new low forms around 14.2N 53.5W

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Could it be possible that the current low dies and a new low forms around 14.2N 53.5W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Erika has a large circulation. We don't usually see reformations with lumbering lows.