ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NCSTORMMAN]

Inside the gap in convection it looks like a new CoC is spinning there. Is that the CoC or is that mid level spin? I can see it right inbetween the convection that split.

Thats the MLC the surface low is about 50miles NNE of it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Thanks I am still watching the area because these things always form new centers when they end up weak or at least it is a possibility.

[NDG]

Could it be possible that the current low dies and a new low forms around 14.2N 53.5W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It almost never happens, the LLC continues while the MLC eventually dies out.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Same here, if the GFS & ECMWF continue to show that Erika will be fairly weak as it moves WNW I am not that worried about it. The one model that makes me worry a little is the HWRF, it has been OK at times this season in the Atlantic.
There is still plenty of time to watch what Erika will do.

Don't forget the UKMET, it's been doing well for the most part this season.

[Bocadude85]

I would think those tropical storm watches should be upgraded to warnings at 11pm.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Same here, if the GFS & ECMWF continue to show that Erika will be fairly weak as it moves WNW I am not that worried about it. The one model that makes me worry a little is the HWRF, it has been OK at times this season in the Atlantic.
There is still plenty of time to watch what Erika will do.

Don't forget the UKMET, it's been doing well for the most part this season.

The UKMET has done OK at the MDR but it has been too aggressive with systems in the subtropical Atlantic at times, IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like new convection popping near the center

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[NCSTORMMAN]

Buoy near Erika is showing 1011 mb pressure it is to the south and east of the storm.

Link here

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=41040

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Same here, if the GFS & ECMWF continue to show that Erika will be fairly weak as it moves WNW I am not that worried about it. The one model that makes me worry a little is the HWRF, it has been OK at times this season in the Atlantic.
There is still plenty of time to watch what Erika will do.

Don't forget the UKMET, it's been doing well for the most part this season.

You should definitely throw out the bad, but never trust the "good" model. What I mean is to trust any one model just because it's "been doing well this season" is like keeping your money on red on the casino table because it's been coming up red the last few times. Every season we hear that one model is doing better than the other only to see it go down in flames on its next forecast. It's the model consensus, with the badly performing ones thrown out, that always does best.

[Sanibel]

The upper level obviously got worse.

[MGC]

The NDBC has the NHC track on its website with links to the various buoys. Just checked the buoy near Key West and the water tempt is 90.0F. So, there looks like plenty of warm water in the Florida Straights. Lets hope Erika avoids the Florida Straights......MGC

[AutoPenalti]

This is probably a depression.

[floridasun78]

00
WTNT35 KNHC 260253
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
still a ts

[gatorcane]

Interesting snippet from the 11pmEST NHC disco:

However, I
will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the
the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile

[NDG]

One thing we must never take for granted is that area down in the Bahamas/Florida Straits region . This is an area notorious for tropical cyclones to rapidly intensify. This area is so untapped from lack of activity in recent years in that you just wonder when the dynamite is going to get ignited down in that region. We just observed the 23rd anniversary of one of those storms which was just nearly remnants initially in that area, only to blow up into a Cat 5 at landfall in Homstead. This very week, we are observing the 10th anniversary of the other storm which initially entered weak traversing through the Bahamas and eventually saw that storm strengthen fast into a Cat 1 cane just as she made landfall in Miami.

So Erika may be a weakened cyclone in a few days time approaching that Bahamas region. BUT, let us really hope she doesn't follow in the footsteps of those legendary monster tropical cyclones I referenced in this post!!

Yeah, that will be the area where Erika may strengthen some, the 12z Euro shows a huge UL anticyclone building on top of Erika as it nears the FL straights.

[floridasun78]

Tropical Storm ERIKA Forecast Discussion will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the
the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile.

[ozonepete]

This is probably a depression.

Well, to be more accurate, it's probably vacillating between a depression and a Tropical Storm right now. In that case why not leave the designation as a TS, right? Remember that some of those thunderstorm clusters popping up can pack a wallop of TS winds before they pulse back down, and we are now moving into the overnight diurnal maximum where the thunderstorms will blow up quite a bit and try to consolidate over the center. In short, TS seems fine for now.

[GeneratorPower]

Anyone have any thoughts on what the NHC 11pm track will show? If you extrapolate the current track by 6 hours it would be on the coast of South Florida. I'm not sure if the NHC is ready to commit to a U.S. Landfall yet. Perhaps a slight north adjustment keeping the center off shore?

Usually they slow it down so that it never hits land in the forecast. My money is on a slow down at 11pm tonight with center point of 5 day position slightly north of current forecast.

Yup. That's exactly what happened.

[AutoPenalti]

00
WTNT35 KNHC 260253
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

...POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 54.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
still a ts

Most notable is that it's slowing down.

[wxman57]

On their new advisory, the NHC admits a 35kt estimate is "probably generous". I agree. They also mention it could very well dissipate in the next day or so - that's quite possible. The center remains well-detached from any convection tonight. I do not see it re-forming farther south. My gut is saying its intensity when it nears south Florida may be closer to 25 kts than 65 kts. I'm not saying it can't be a hurricane, but I think it will be weaker. It could well dissipate tomorrow.

[Bocadude85]

NHC saying they will not be surprised if Erika doesn't make it past the NE Caribbean.


000
WTNT45 KNHC 260254
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015

Both NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika
and found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006
mb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.
The low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited
thunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite
imagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is
generously kept at 35 kt.

The intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika
has a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor
for the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts
a hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it
only strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast
period. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF
global models which either weaken the cyclone or show little
change in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity
consensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then,
the cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment
could be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I
will not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the
the northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile.

Erika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate
subtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This
pattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and
west-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the
cyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the
Bahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed.
The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows
very closely the multi-model consensus.

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been adjusted and added for
some of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean by the respective
Meteorological Services.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 17.0N 60.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 63.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 18.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 21.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 26.0N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila