ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: That was my 1st post on this storm btw...

Congrats. So, my posting more than you should keep me from posting more opinions? Can a guy express his thoughts here or is this nazi germany?

Ok, calm down NC my friend. Gut feelings are ok, but we still want to keep it as scientific and practical here as we can. A lot of people who come here are very afraid of getting hit by these storms so they have legitimate need for good advice.

[Hurricaneman]

Erika is slowing down a little but for it to have a chance it needs to slow down some to more like 15mph for it to stack up

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[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

Unless you have a time machine, making statements like these are very premature. I'm sure weather enthusiasts were saying the same thing in 1992 when Andrew was barely classifiable in the central Atlantic.*

* Since some like to take things out of context, no, I am not calling for an Andrew. But the overall idea that a storm's current presentation does not preclude significant strengthening later down the road remains.

The NHC has went from straight hurricane to dissipating possibly. They do say uncertainty but I believe it is dead by tomorrow afternoon or at least an open wave. Danny did the same right at this same spot with the same conditions.

Danny also had much more dry air to deal with and was much smaller. Erika's large size means it should be more resilient to hostile conditions.

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

Unless you have a time machine, making statements like these are very premature. I'm sure weather enthusiasts were saying the same thing in 1992 when Andrew was barely classifiable in the central Atlantic.*

* Since some like to take things out of context, no, I am not calling for an Andrew. But the overall idea that a storm's current presentation does not preclude significant strengthening later down the road remains.

I think we are talking about odds here. Yes, it could do something completely unexpected when it comes to getting stronger than anticipated, but I think we all agree that the chances of that is very slim(not that it can't happen)....I won't say that it will be "dead" in the morning, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to wake up to a wave or very weak depression. I think that's a very strong possibility.

Certainly dissipation is a possibility, but I couldn't call the odds of Erika becoming a formidable threat slim at all. It just needs to survive to north of the islands, where the upper-level setup should become much more conducive to development.

[Hammy]

Erika should be dead by tomorrow. Never go against the magical shear that is in place it rips storms up for breakfast. Good thing too this thing could of been a lot worse. Convection is not wrapping around anything, convection seems to be dying off, and the storm looks more like a bunch of thunderstorms over the midwest than a TC.

Unless you have a time machine, making statements like these are very premature. I'm sure weather enthusiasts were saying the same thing in 1992 when Andrew was barely classifiable in the central Atlantic.*

* Since some like to take things out of context, no, I am not calling for an Andrew. But the overall idea that a storm's current presentation does not preclude significant strengthening later down the road remains.

I think we are talking about odds here. Yes, it could do something completely unexpected when it comes to getting stronger than anticipated, but I think we all agree that the chances of that is very slim(not that it can't happen)....I won't say that it will be "dead" in the morning, but I wouldn't be surprised at all to wake up to a wave or very weak depression. I think that's a very strong possibility. But I guess we will find out who's wrong and who's right tomorrow morning .......The last couple of seasons have made me much more skeptical

I think we'll wake up to at very least a much less organized system tomorrow--it's still doing what the earlier run models were showing. I still think the models tend to be flipflopping this year on longer forecasts based on immediate conditions, they did the same with Danny, backing off significantly from showing a stronger storm east of the Islands when it ingested dry air (prior to becoming a hurricane.)

This may be a flaw to be worked out whenever they are upgraded next.

edit: my post and the preceding one have turned this page into a wall of quotes

[Kingarabian]

What I do not understand is why Avila didn't reduce the intensity forecast if this may not survive? Why not show a ts at the 5 day point?

I would assume for consistency, what if the next set of runs show a major again, and they have to flip back to hurricane.

Right, consistency, but also there are clearly better conditions possible as it moves into the Bahamas. It's a very complicated environment that keeps changing each time the models run.

This is so true.

Some storms over the pacific also gave the models a hard time as well despite what appeared to be cut in stone conditions (Kilo).

[SeGaBob]

Convection does seem to be building on the western side of the system for now... let's see how it holds up.

[HurriGuy]

Ever since Issac back in 2012, I remain gun-shy. I know Issac came up between Hispaniola and Cuba and was a completely different track, but this reminds me of the same situation. Like Issac, Erika is a decent size circulation, big enough to possibly sustain the challenges thrown at her. I would not be surprised if Erika remains weak over the next 3 days, hugs on to the mountains causing her to maintain weak strength, and completely ignore the weak piece of the trough possibly eroding the Bermuda high not causing her to turn to the north. Steering currents would be weak, and she'd slowly march into the Gulf and gradually strengthen like Issac. Since Erika is not stacked, and it will take days to do so, it would not surprise me to see model consensus continue to shift west.

[psyclone]

While I do think dissipation is possible, Erika has a big, even if poorly structured, circulation and those tend to be tenacious... I have no feeling either way.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Only thing is with the way she is barely surviving with life support now, any interactions with those mountainous regions would finish her off, if she even makes it that far and long and there wouldn't be anything left to get into the gulf.

[bahamaswx]

Nice burst of convection, but a good ~80 miles off the center. Still growing in size though---we'll see if it can't engulf the LLC.

[Hammy]

Nice burst of convection, but a good ~80 miles off the center. Still growing in size though---we'll see if it can't engulf the LLC.

Quite a bit closer than the earlier bursts were today, and we're headed into DMAX in a few hours.

[northjaxpro]

[ninel conde]

dissipation seems the most likely outcome. i would say its rare indeed for 2 storms to die over deep tropical waters with no land interaction, but it happened a few years ago as well. only chance for it to survive is to head north of PR, otherwise it will look like ex danny does now over Hispaniola.

[Hammy]

dissipation seems the most likely outcome. i would say its rare indeed for 2 storms to die over deep tropical waters with no land interaction, but it happened a few years ago as well. only chance for it to survive is to head north of PR, otherwise it will look like ex danny does now over Hispaniola.

I would say Fay 2008 could be a good analog should it take the southern track, riding the islands as a weak storm, but not entirely dissipating due to the larger circulation, and strengthening after exiting Cuba (but no similarity in the track beyond that)

[ninel conde]

you could be right, but i doubt it can survive the east carib.

[Weatherlover12]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

[ConvergenceZone]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

Wealtherlover, again people are posting the most likely scenerio. There's always a chance that it can some how find a way of staying together.... But we are just playing the odds game based upon all the data(current conditions, models, etc....)

[ozonepete]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

I got your point. And I already can see that you take this seriously. It is very frustrating sometimes on here with so many different people offering opinions not backed by science, but for real insight just concentrate on the pro mets and the ones who have been around a long time and tend to be considerate. You will figure out who they are. And of course in the end it is the NHC and your local NWS who you have to trust the most. And of course ask us questions as often as you like. We just try to help here.

[Weatherlover12]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

Wealtherlover, again people are posting the most likely scenerio. There's always a chance that it can some how find a way of staying together.... But we are just playing the odds game based upon all the data(current conditions, models, etc....)

What is Erika looking like now?
I believe it may be a weak storm but once it gets to the Bahamas.. That's when it'll gain strength

[JonathanBelles]

So Wait, Erika is done now??
I should stop watching it since I live in FL.
I'll tell my friends not to watch it since it won't last.
That's what I'm getting from this blog

Absolutely not! Too many people here are caught by some models and two or three lines of text.

As a Floridian you should be monitoring this system until there is no cloud left. At the very least, rain chances are going up from the trough Wednesday through Friday depending on your location in Florida. The weekend is a whole different kind of forecast that will have to play out this week. You should be prepared either way.

Dissipation is only one possibility over the next 12-24 hours. Environmental conditions get better starting in 48-72 hours.