ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

I think you'll see another nudge of the track to the SW and no change in the intensity forecast for now. Euro and HWRF both show an approximate 85 MPH Cane On approach to the SE FL coast at 126 hours. GFS is outlier to the South and weaker while GFDL is outlier to the NE and much stronger.

[northjaxpro]

Also, it is still not beyond the stretch of imagination that Erika could still deepen a bit farther thann what EURO is showing on this cycle run.

[bahamaswx]

Don't care how close she passes to Georgetown, as long as she passes to the north.

[ericinmia]

I love the weather....

I love how there was a large group of people on the board this afternoon, stating that the models are signaling a death, and the storm was showing death on Sat.

Now, the storm is popping on IR... in a more moisture rich envelope. And the models are starting to show a strengthening storm approaching SE Florida.

How things can change rapidly....
I always trust 00z runs over the rest, when I have a choice. (They are the fresh/clean run )

[SouthFLTropics]

144 hours it runs the spine of FL and at 168 looks to exit back into the Atlantic around St. Augustine.

[northjaxpro]

Interesting if ERika takes that track. That would bring lots of potential severe weather with landfalling tropical cyclones i.e.tornadoes, wind damage right up through the peninsula.

[SFLcane]

Ok iam paying attention now.

[northjaxpro]

Landfall in Broward County 132 hr EURO. Looks to be a Cat 1 hurricane.

[SFLcane]

only 4 days to get ready.....

[ericinmia]

Ok iam paying attention now.

Take a look at what she is doing right now, she is looking healthier than she has in a long while....
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=117474&p=2468676#p2468676

[northjaxpro]

For all Floridians, especially initially South Floridians, it is time to really start paying attention and start prepping for Erika!!

[Evil Jeremy]

Not a fan of the "ride up Florida's spine" scenario presented by this ECMWF, and other models over the past couple of days.

[ericinmia]

For all Floridians, especially initially South Floridians, it is time to really start paying attention and start prepping for Erika!!

I bought water for all my elderly neighbors tonight at Costco, and received a bunch of funny looks for my 22 cases of 28ct 20oz water bottles. The families I dropped them off at also laughed at me. I kept reminding people that we all drink water anyway, so early prep before crowds doesn't hurt anyone! They may not be laughing tomorrow afternoon if the models keep showing the same solutions, or zero in on one solution and become more consistent. Once the news picks this up, it will be pandemonium, and I very much dislike crowds.

[Hammy]

Back west and onshore at 216 hours

[northjaxpro]

For all Floridians, especially initially South Floridians, it is time to really start paying attention and start prepping for Erika!!

I bought water for all my elderly neighbors tonight at Costco, and received a bunch of funny looks for my 22 cases of 28ct 20oz water bottles. The families I dropped them off at also laughed at me. I kept reminding people that we all drink water anyway, so early prep before crowds doesn't hurt anyone! They may not be laughing tomorrow afternoon if the models keep showing the same solutions, or zero in on one solution and become more consistent. Once the news picks this up, it will be pandemonium, and I very much dislike crowds.

It is actually a very smart move by you to get all of that prep done. You are well ahead of the game. As time nears toward this event, you know what a zoo it is going to be now into the weekend with Erika approaching.

[ericinmia]

Back west and onshore at 216 hours

Wow, that is a mess!

Jacksonville will get one from the West and East if that pans out.
I guess they can unequivocally say their hurricane shield is broken at that point!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=293

[chaser1]

144 hours it runs the spine of FL and at 168 looks to exit back into the Atlantic around St. Augustine.

Yep, and by the way... the EURO actually deepens Erika "after" the Miami landfall, and appears at its strongest point at about 144 hour somewhere over or north of Lake Okeechobee.

As another side note, the other global CMC ("Uncle Funny"", is keeping Erika pretty mello but has a similar track but slightly south, and shows Erika moving up through Homestead, into the E. Gulf, back toward Tampa and up the spine of Fla. towards Atlanta. I also checked the NAM which I'm beginning to have a bit more faith when dealing with a storm in the subtropics and mid latitudes..., and it has a much slower moving Erika just North of the Eastern tip of Cuba, moving slowly WNW and seemingly becoming slowly stronger as it moves towards S. Florida.

Finally, the 0Z NavGem is nearly identical to the EURO with Erika deepening in the W. Bahamas at around 114 hours, then a slow strengthening crawl toward landfall at Miami in about 132 hours, and sliding up the coast slowly where it eventually takes aim at the S. Carolina coastline - DEEPENING the entire time.

[Hammy]

144 hours it runs the spine of FL and at 168 looks to exit back into the Atlantic around St. Augustine.

Yep, and by the way... the EURO actually deepens Erika "after" the Miami landfall, and appears at its strongest point at about 144 hour somewhere over or north of Lake Okeechobee.

As another side note, the other global CMC ("Uncle Funny"", is keeping Erika pretty mello but has a similar track but slightly south, and shows Erika moving up through Homestead, into the E. Gulf, back toward Tampa and up the spine of Fla. towards Atlanta. I also checked the NAM which I'm beginning to have a bit more faith when dealing with a storm in the subtropics and mid latitudes..., and it has a much slower moving Erika just North of the Eastern tip of Cuba, moving slowly WNW and seemingly becoming slowly stronger as it moves towards S. Florida.

Finally, the 0Z NavGem is nearly identical to the EURO with Erika deepening in the W. Bahamas at around 114 hours, then a slow strengthening crawl toward landfall at Miami in about 132 hours, and sliding up the coast slowly where it eventually takes aim at the S. Carolina coastline - DEEPENING the entire time.

That's quite a few models and a relatively small spread for that far out...

[Riptide]

Been a long time since we've had a cat 3+ coastal crawler. Only one that comes to mind is 1899. David was on the weaker side for sure on approach to Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Back west and onshore at 216 hours

Wow, that is a mess!

Jacksonville will get one from the West and East if that pans out.
I guess they can unequivocally say their hurricane shield is broken at that point!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=293

Well, T.S.Beryl got us from the east in May 2012 to end our direct hit drought since Hurricane Dora in 1964. Beryl nearly became a hurricane before landfalling I might add. I am worried if Erika moves in either up the peninsula or if she somehow reached the Eastern GOM and curved back northeast toward the FL west coast and traversing northeast toward Jax. Either of those scenarios would put Jax on the northeast quadrant of ERika, bringing with it the heaviest and worst side of the storm. Both of these scenarios are looking omniously probable right now.