northjaxpro wrote:Also, it is still not beyond the stretch of imagination that Erika could still deepen a bit farther thann what EURO is showing on this cycle run.
Absolutely. I'm less inclined to think that Erika will survive marginal conditions all the way to the Florida coastline, but muster enough deepening to manage a borderline hurricane, as I am to either see:
1) complete dissipation, if conditions become that much more unfavorable OR
2) slow overall intensification and organization over time with even greater intensification beginning north of Hispanola or E. Cuba where SST's get a good deal warmer and present 200mb charts would indicate an upper anticyclone to be over the region, thus resulting in a Cat. 2 Western Bahamas or S. Florida landfall. If pressed to guess, i'd say landfall between Ft. Lauderdale and Ft. Pierce
Just as important may be exactly how strong the ridge will be, thus causing hurricane impact to a much larger area of Florida. It appeared to me that the ridge only continued to build in further with time, thus the slower Erika were to move the even greater likelihood of not feeling any hint of residual weakness off the coast of Florida. Short of another collapse of convection tomm., this event is about to start getting a lot more real.
