ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Brent]

[TheStormExpert]

Peaks now at 70kts(80mph)!

[jlauderdal]

this is a good time to remind users
that average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180
miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.

[Hammy]

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc15/ATL/05L.ERIKA/amsr2/color/2degreeticks/20150826.0528.gcomw1.x.colorpct_89h_89v.05LERIKA.35kts-1005mb-159N-552W.60pc.jpg

Pass from a few hours ago.

[Nimbus]

The model tracks and forecast reasoning haven't changed much from WXman57's synopsis yesterday morning.

There is an upper level low centered near -40w 30n providing light shear from the NW currently.
High pressure ridging will build in east of there and provide some of the upper air environment elements.
The southerly shear from SA that is blowing Danny remnants north is weaker north of the islands.

The upper air pattern north of the great lakes that has been providing short waves and savior troughs is positioned further NW or dissipated in most of the recent model runs.

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 9m9 minutes ago
Not a time for a freak out, but a good time to tie up the loose ends of your #hurricane plan south #florida ! #Erika

[Hammy]

TBH looking at satpic atm it's looking very elongated to the point
it may have even opened up recon be interesting.

Recon indicating 20+ kt west winds on the last pass, which is probably the most organized this has been. It's probably looking elongated due to the shear and a very intense band wrapping around the east side.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 260838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 56.0W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[CourierPR]

Just looked at RAMSDIS and it appears to me that Erika's circulation is expanding.

[NDG]

Well, I did not wanted to have to wake up to the Euro's latest run. Time to start paying more attention to Erika.
Even the latest 06z GFS show a little stronger vorticity and an excellent UL environment for Erika as it starts nearing the FL straights.

[NDG]

TBH looking at satpic atm it's looking very elongated to the point
it may have even opened up recon be interesting.

NOAA recon is flying at 10,000 feet so at that altitude is a little hard to pinpoint the COC with a tilted system like Erika is right now, she is not opening into a wave.

[NDG]

Though this pass is almost 3 hours old it could still show that Erika is still being affected by northerly ML shear with the LLC still on the northern edge of the convection.
But Erika is no Danny, it has a very large circulation as clearly seen on microwave, which gives it higher chances to survive the shear.

[SouthDadeFish]

The system is still sheared, but appears much more healthy than this time yesterday.

[jlauderdal]

Well, I did not wanted to have to wake up to the Euro's latest run. Time to start paying more attention to Erika.
Even the latest 06z GFS show a little stronger vorticity and an excellent UL environment for Erika as it starts nearing the FL straights.

very interesting setup the next few days..models really struggling on intensity but track seems straight forward...everyone south of jax and west to the gulf coast be on the lookout..tomorrow we should be able to get this down to 100 miles either way for first us landfall..there could be more than one us landfall and florida could easily see two landfalls with one on the east and one on the west coasts

[Gustywind]

Slight increasing numbers...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
26/0545 UTC 16.1N 54.8W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA
25/2345 UTC 16.0N 53.4W T2.0/2.0 ERIKA
25/1745 UTC 15.8N 51.6W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/1145 UTC 15.1N 50.2W T2.0/2.5 ERIKA
25/0545 UTC 14.3N 48.3W T2.5/2.5 ERIKA

[AutoPenalti]

Well, I did not wanted to have to wake up to the Euro's latest run. Time to start paying more attention to Erika.
Even the latest 06z GFS show a little stronger vorticity and an excellent UL environment for Erika as it starts nearing the FL straights.

Do you have a link to that run by any chance?

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082606, , BEST, 0, 159N, 552W, 35, 1005, TS, 34

[NDG]

Well, I did not wanted to have to wake up to the Euro's latest run. Time to start paying more attention to Erika.
Even the latest 06z GFS show a little stronger vorticity and an excellent UL environment for Erika as it starts nearing the FL straights.

Do you have a link to that run by any chance?

Here you can find all the models and as also shown on the models' thread.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=255

[NDG]

Unflagged 42 knots at surface by SFMR just found by AF recon.

110330 1554N 05610W 8434 01552 0079 +180 +103 207017 018 042 000 00

[tgenius]

The local SFL media is already starting to go into overdrive. If the 11 and 5pm advisories keep Erika pointed out way it's gonna start reaching critical mass.