ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[perk]

I didn't see anybody asking this. It appears that the Euro has this riding up the spine of Florida exiting around Jacksonville and then riding back thru Florida and exiting around Tampa. Is that a realistic scenario? That would inundate basically all of Florida with rain for over 5 days....

You beat me to it.

[SouthDadeFish]

06Z HWRF showing a ragged storm through 66 hours.

[caneman]

I'm not real sure how this is going to miss the D.r. and haiti. They're known to tear up storms. Also, worse case scenario is to cross over Miami or keys and then hit Tampa as well.

[NDG]

Did anyone notice the end of the Euro run,Erika gets trapped by a building high and gets pushed SSW back into the GOM.

The 06z GFS though not the same exact track it also show for Erika to meander around the eastern GOM, not a good scenario neither runs for FL that's for sure.

[perk]

Did anyone notice the end of the Euro run,Erika gets trapped by a building high and gets pushed SSW back into the GOM.

The 06z GFS though not the same exact track it also show for Erika to meander around the eastern GOM, not a good scenario neither runs for FL that's for sure.

For Florida's sake i hope that does'nt pan out.

[tolakram]

6Z GFS run. Weak but comes ashore in the same general area.

[tolakram]

06Z HWRF delays any significant strengthening until 80 hours.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

So far the 06z HWRF is a slower in Erika gaining strength and organization after passing near PR & Hispaniola.

[stormlover2013]

In about 3 more days we will have pretty good confidence on what it will do, scarey thing is that strong high and leaving on top of Florida and shooting it back down to Florida and then on into the gom

[wzrgirl1]

I lost my chart that shows the categories along with their wind speeds and pressures. Does anyone have a link to a good one? Thanks!

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[boca]

Do you have a link to the HWRF model?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Tolakram, have you got some updated shear maps you could post?

[South Texas Storms]

Do you have a link to the HWRF model?

Here you go:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082606&fh=99&xpos=0&ypos=59

[SFLcane]

06z HWRF with a powerful hurricane nearing landfall in sfl.

[boca]

Thank you

[tolakram]

The Saffir Simpson scale is just winds, isn't it?

[South Texas Storms]

The Saffir Simpson scale is just winds, isn't it?

Yeah it is. I think that chart you posted may have put pressure on there just for reference.