ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Wind shear for the latest GFS run is here: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=shear&runtime=2015082606&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=255

[boca]

The latest Hrwf model doesn't make a S Florida landfall

[tgenius]

The latest Hrwf model doesn't make a S Florida landfall

While it is just a single run from a single model, I'm hoping that UKMET/Euro/GFS come in line and follow HRWF and pull away from a SFL hit.

[stormlover2013]

Gfdl and hwrf models are like the Oakland a's in baseball up and down and have more bad runs then good runs

[tolakram]

Moving North/NW at the very end of the run.



source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=211

[boca]

Whenever we are in the cone early on usually means that we don't get hit so I hope this is a trend

[wzrgirl1]

Thank you very much.

[Bocadude85]

Whenever we are in the cone early on usually means that we don't get hit so I hope this is a trend

The HWRF has never actually shown a South Florida landfall yet. Various runs just have Erika approaching South Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

That HWRF run definitely shows the ridge displaced more to the East allowing Erika to round the corner and head more North. Is it the start of a trend of the models moving more East. Time will tell.

[boca]

It's a trend that a stronger storm will head poleward.

[boca]

Too early to worry about the cone I'm my opinion

[wzrgirl1]

The Saffir Simpson scale is just winds, isn't it?

Yeah it is. I think that chart you posted may have put pressure on there just for reference.

That was what I was looking for. Thank you kindly.

[tolakram]

HWRF-P (parent) is done.





source: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=05L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2015082606&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=455

[DESTRUCTION5]

Whenever we are in the cone early on usually means that we don't get hit so I hope this is a trend

The HWRF has never actually shown a South Florida landfall yet. Various runs just have Erika approaching South Florida.

Yep..looks like it's exactly or within miles of last run. It's all a matter of trajectory when it's that close. Factor in Euro does a loop and GFS is still a ghost well west of HWRF your model blend at 11 won't move a bit IMO.

[Bocadude85]

Whenever we are in the cone early on usually means that we don't get hit so I hope this is a trend

The HWRF has never actually shown a South Florida landfall yet. Various runs just have Erika approaching South Florida.

Yep..looks like it's exactly or within miles of last run. It's all a matter of trajectory when it's that close. Factor in Euro does a loop and GFS is still a ghost well west of HWRF your model blend at 11 won't move a bit IMO.

Yea it's about 50 miles ene of the 0z run. The 6z only has this about 50-75 miles offshore. Not much room for error there.

[boca]

I think Erika will miss us to the east because it's getting organized quicker so a quicker north turn


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[invest man]

It appears that the 09z update from NHC showed that the storm was not to hit 50 mph until 18z tomorrow. How will a quicker intensification effect future model runs? Would it have a tendency to allow the storm to move more to the right or nw ward? IM

[boca]

Yes a weaker storm will tend to move more westward because the storm is not as deep and a deeper storm will follow the weakness

[stormlover2013]

Maybe also the more organized it gets the more it will slow down and prolong landfall and etc