ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

All just guesses at this point. Erica may be strengthening but still has to run the shear gauntlet a little north of the current location.

[boca]

I'm actually happy we are in the cone because tomorrow it will change again,if it was within 3 days I would be more concerned but now just hoping the cone shifts east like I think it will do.Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see the models showing so much a weakness as much as how far the Atlantic Sub-Tropical Ridge gets westward for the Storm to go around, of course a weak surface reflection is just going to stay in the lower level flow and head for the Gulf where a strong TC is going to ride the ridge thus the varying model solutions from well east of Florida to hitting Florida.

I'd lean heavily on the ECM at this point, it has proven itself once a Storm forms and it gets fed the Recon data to be almost unbeatable!

[boca]

The trough that is over the Eastern U.S down to the northern gulf coast is that supposed to lift out?

[Blown Away]

12z...

[Dean4Storms]

The trough that is over the Eastern U.S down to the northern gulf coast is that supposed to lift out?

ECM splits it with a piece moving westward toward TX and the northern part lifting out to the Canadian maritimes.

[tolakram]

The GFS has it moving, but hard to say for sure, one of the reasons shear is so hard to forecast.

Be wary of downcasting this thing, as many folks who can't stand the idea of being hit will start doing. There are plenty of reasons this may miss Florida, but no solid forecast at the moment. IMO, if I lived in Florida, I would be prepared for a hit now and be happy if it's a false alarm.

[SouthFLTropics]

:up: Look at that crazy TVCN consensus...up and hooks a left turn into Cape Canaveral!!!

[rockyman]

The TVCN now ends around Cedar Key, Florida, in response to some of the models showing a building ridge north of Erika as it approaches the Florida coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

The TVCN now ends around Cedar Key, Florida, in response to some of the models showing a building ridge north of Erika as it approaches the Florida coast.

Look at the crazy left hook it takes into Cape Canaveral!

[gatorcane]

The 06Z NAVGEM:

[tgenius]

The 06Z NAVGEM:

Yikes... Historically is NAVGEM a model of confidence or is it typically an outlier?

[tolakram]

The 06Z NAVGEM:

Yikes... Historically is NAVGEM a model of confidence or is it typically an outlier?

NAVGEM is horrible. They should classify that to protect the innocent.

[ronjon]

The 06Z NAVGEM:

Yikes... Historically is NAVGEM a model of confidence or is it typically an outlier?

NAVGEM is horrible. They should classify that to protect the innocent.

For what its worth, NAVGEM has shifted westward from earlier runs.

[blp]

Funny how the CMC has not been living up to its crazy uncle title lately. It keeps this weak due to land interaction over Hispaniola. Looks similar to the GFS. Does not develop it until it reaches the E. Gulf and even then keeps it weak. Years ago it would have ramped this thing up as soon as it saw warm water. Maybe they did some kind of upgrade this year. We might need to find a new crazy uncle

[BucMan2]

If the NAGEM and the CMC are terrible why are they still used?

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM isn't the greatest model but you still see the NHC mentioning it from time to time in their discussions plus it is factored into the TVCN (model consensus track). It's one of those models that can get several storms wrong but then out of nowhere will nail a storm. Just so folks know the model was developed by the U.S. Navy and was previously the NOGAPS.

[N2FSU]

The TVCN now ends around Cedar Key, Florida, in response to some of the models showing a building ridge north of Erika as it approaches the Florida coast.

Look at the crazy left hook it takes into Cape Canaveral!

I was just about to post the same thing!

[NDG]

Based on the 12z early model runs, I would say the NHC's official forecast track is about right, for now.

[tolakram]

The NAVGEM isn't the greatest model but you still see the NHC mentioning it from time to time in their discussions plus it is factored into the TVCN (model consensus track). It's one of those models that can get several storms wrong but then out of nowhere will nail a storm. Just so folks know the model was developed by the U.S. Navy and was previously the NOGAPS.

Yea, my comment was over the top. All the models are good, especially when there is a consensus. You have 3 globals now showing the vorticity hitting south Florida, so the general location is better known IMO but not the strength.

Canadian