ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Looks like all the "action" will be to your north, Gusty.

[tropicwatch]

What is the deal with FL winds much lower than SFMR. No flags

Time: 13:36:00Z
Coordinates: 15.217N 57.083W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,575 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.5 mb (29.93 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 192° at 9 kts (From the SSW at 10.4 mph)
Air Temp: 14.7°C (58.5°F)
Dew Pt: 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 kts (11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 kts (56.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 32 mm/hr (1.26 in/hr)

[CaneCurious]

Recon found Erika's center on the NW tip of the convection, indicating conditions aloft are still not quite right. All model guidance is in good agreement on a possible S. FL threat Monday morning. How strong it will be when it nears S. FL is still the big question, and that question may not be resolved until this weekend. If I was in S. FL then I'd make sure that my hurricane kit was in order and that my pantry was full of non-perishable goods, etc., etc..

OK guys if our Storm2k community pessimist, wxman57, is on board for a hit then get your stuff in order!

[Gustywind]

Looks like all the "action" will be to your north, Gusty.

Hope this trend continues, that could be good news for us but we never know. Let's wait and see how Erika continues it treks towards the Leewards.

[PTrackerLA]

Heard state of Florida EOC activated and they are at a level 2 (monitoring situation)

[NDG]

What is the deal with FL winds much lower than SFMR. No flags

Time: 13:36:00Z
Coordinates: 15.217N 57.083W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,575 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1013.5 mb (29.93 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 192° at 9 kts (From the SSW at 10.4 mph)
Air Temp: 14.7°C (58.5°F)
Dew Pt: 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 kts (11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 kts (56.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 32 mm/hr (1.26 in/hr)

Obviously rain contaminated reading, IMO.

[BucMan2]

wxman57- after a possible South Florida where do you see it tracking from there?

[Steve H.]

Yes, Erika is at the NW tip of the convection, not well stacked yet. She is pulsing but we're not there yet. This will probably continue for the next day or two.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fd122]

It's already quite windy here. Danny brought almost nothing in comparison.

[robbielyn]

if she misses her forecast point could it be the gfs is right taking her through Hispaniola? Hopefully so.

[stormlover2013]

nobody knows where it will track, we will know the pattern pretty good on saturday, depends on if the high breaks down and how far the trough digs south

[BobHarlem]

if she misses her forecast point could it be the gfs is right taking her through Hispaniola? Hopefully so.

Careful on satellite images now, convection is nearly all south of the center, recon is currently showing it right on track.

[Gustywind]

It's already quite windy here. Danny brought almost nothing in comparison.

Current Weather Conditions:
Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda

(TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M


Conditions at
Aug 26, 2015 - 10:00 AM EDT 2015.08.26 1400 UTC

Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 96.8 F (36.0 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.91 in. Hg (1013 hPa)
ob TAPA 261400Z 05015KT 9999 BKN016 30/25 Q1013 NOSIG




24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 10 AM (14) Aug 26 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) NE 17
9 AM (13) Aug 26 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.91 (1013) NE 18
8 AM (12) Aug 26 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) NE 14
7 AM (11) Aug 26 80 (27) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 12 rain showers
6 AM (10) Aug 26 82 (28) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) NE 16
5 AM (9) Aug 26 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) NE 18
4 AM (8) Aug 26 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ENE 15
3 AM (7) Aug 26 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ENE 15
2 AM (6) Aug 26 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.88 (1012) ENE 12
1 AM (5) No Data

[NDG]

As said mentioned all morning long, Erika's LLC is still to the northern edge of the deep convection.
But its surface circulation is fairly big.

[eastcoastFL]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

Same in Martin...County to start reducing traffic lights as early as Friday if projections continue.

Where do you obtain your information for Martin County?

Im not sure yet. Im new to martin county. My kids school has been texting me updates also.

[ConvergenceZone]

Sorry, Mark : )

Looking at this loop, you can see the high cloud motion ahead of Erika, so shear still an issue:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif

I admit, I was wrong on this....I thought I'd wake up to a depression/wave. I totally admit I was wrong. I guess that's why the tropics are so exciting. They really humble you with their unpredictability. All that shear means Frank is that it won't develop quite as rapidly as it would if the shear wasn't there...

[tolakram]

Not sure when the HTML5 loops appeared but I like them.

source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/html5-vis-short.html

[eastcoastFL]

I just heard on the radio that palm beach county emergency management is meeting and is considering issuing a state of emergency as early as Friday.

Same in Martin...County to start reducing traffic lights as early as Friday if projections continue.

Good info. I live in palm city. Probably won't ve school monday.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Looks like it is getting ready to pulse again.

[BucMan2]

How big do you think the size of this Cyclone will be?