ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z Guidance with the IVCN bringing it to a CAT 3/4 but the LGEM is still around a strong TS. the GFTI (likely too strong) is approaching CAT 5:

[Blown Away]

Been a while since I've seen an Atlantic system intensity model reach Cat 5... Likely not going to happen, but it's been a while...

[Steve H.]

Gator, do you have a link ?

[AutoPenalti]

12Z Guidance with the IVCN bringing it to a CAT 3/4 but the LGEM is still around a strong TS. the GFTI (likely too strong) is approaching CAT 5:

Wow, GFTI. How reliable is that model anyway?

[gatorcane]

The UKMET (United Kingdom model) turns her just east of Florida but WAY too close for comfort.

[NDG]

Here is the Euro's UL forecast for Sunday evening when Erika is over or near the FL straights. This will be a rapidly strengthening hurricane if this UL forecast pans out!!

[NDG]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2015082606&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=240

MU 06z hi res not interested washes out.

That's because it looses the low pressure center, this particular run does strengthens it some as it nears FL more than previous runs.

[BucMan2]

As far as intensity goes most all models show atleast a cat 1 if I'm reading correctly

[tolakram]

As far as intensity goes most all models show atleast a cat 1 if I'm reading correctly

GFS and Canadian show a wave or very weak TS.

[NDG]

As far as intensity goes most all models show atleast a cat 1 if I'm reading correctly

That's the consensus among all models, but the GFS is barely bringing into a tropical storm when it gets to near FL on the GOM side.

[BucMan2]

I'm sorry tolakram I stand corrected -

[Mouton]

The TVCN now ends around Cedar Key, Florida, in response to some of the models showing a building ridge north of Erika as it approaches the Florida coast.

Look at the crazy left hook it takes into Cape Canaveral!

Very similar to Dora in 64. That storm was a category 4 I think in the Atlantic and dropped to category 2 as it approached south of Jacksonville.

[robbielyn]

if she misses her forecast point she could get shredded by Hispaniola and gfs could be right.

[Evil Jeremy]

Loving the model consensus this morning.

[tolakram]

if she misses her forecast point she could get shredded by Hispaniola and gfs could be right.

GFS doesn't bring it over Hispaniola, it just fails to develop it.

After it moves away the vorticity is washed out, not sure why, but it stays north of Hispaniola.

[Blown Away]

06z GFDL well east of Florida... 144 mph Cat 4... The fast intensification models recurve sooner...


06z HWRF... Gets tangled in Hispaniola... 90 mph... Finds better conditions moving towards/just East of SFL...

[boca]

It doesn't look like the storm is following the projected path because the models clearly have a WNW trajectory but Erika is moving west

[NDG]

For what is worth the 12z NAM does not weaken Erika to a tropical wave.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=117

[NDG]

It doesn't look like the storm is following the projected path because the models clearly have a WNW trajectory but Erika is moving west

It has not been moving straight west overall, which is what the models and NHC have been showing.

[tolakram]

I wont be here for the 12z GFS run but I'll save and post images when I get back after 1pm or so. Someone else please feel free to post the graphics. GFS run starts at 11:30AM EDT. Euro run starts at 1:45PM EDT.