ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

GFS 700MB flow map 90 hours, with a ridge to the north at 700MB level:

[Blown Away]

GFS closing it off again at 90 hours in the Central Bahamas, High-res map below:

Closed isobar alert!!!

That's such an inside small group jokie joke... That made me smile...

[gatorcane]

I actually think this is where the euro dominates with its synoptic scale features. IMHO, the Bahamas should** not definitely** but SHOULD** be a place for this to potentially take off.....EURO And HWRF have the better Idea. I am NOT saying this will be as strong as the HWRF, but the GFS looks wrong and too weak at the SFC. Given the look at H5, and looking back over the SE, with that weakness there, the Bahamas should be getting WELL ventilated. I think thats why the GFS is not seeing any strengthening. It doesn't believe that there will be less shear, i.e. see the map above. I guess it could be right, not doubt...but I highly doubt it. Unless the EURO comes down *and consistently* to showing a weak piece of garbage....and the HWRF comes down, then I am calling BS on the weak GFS solution. just my 2 cents right now.

Well I tell you what, after the Sandy debacle with the GFS and also it's horrible track record last year, if the European models (ECMWF and UKMET) which are showing something far stronger than the GFS in the Bahamas get this right, somebody needs to devote some funds to the GFS and get this model working properly. Our models should be as good as those European models.

[Kohlecane]

Another thing to notice about the 12z GFS run so far is that is not as far south and west as previous runs after passing the area of P.R.

that I do agree with as well.. this is driving me nuts

[NDG]

Like I said, compared to its previous runs this is a big switch from the GFS lol.

[JPmia]

She gets going just off the SE FL coast at 117hrs.

[SouthFLTropics]

108...getting stronger near Andros Island

[gatorcane]

GFS 114 hours and strengthening but still weak:

[northjaxpro]

I think the ridge is going to be strong enough in which there will be no escape for Erika approaching South Florida. The odds look more likely that we will see Erika impacting Florida in the next 4-5 days unfortunately.

[NDG]

Glad but not glad to see, if you know what I meand, the GFS come on board a a bit closer with the Euro.

[deltadog03]

I actually think this is where the euro dominates with its synoptic scale features. IMHO, the Bahamas should** not definitely** but SHOULD** be a place for this to potentially take off.....EURO And HWRF have the better Idea. I am NOT saying this will be as strong as the HWRF, but the GFS looks wrong and too weak at the SFC. Given the look at H5, and looking back over the SE, with that weakness there, the Bahamas should be getting WELL ventilated. I think thats why the GFS is not seeing any strengthening. It doesn't believe that there will be less shear, i.e. see the map above. I guess it could be right, not doubt...but I highly doubt it. Unless the EURO comes down *and consistently* to showing a weak piece of garbage....and the HWRF comes down, then I am calling BS on the weak GFS solution. just my 2 cents right now.

Well I tell you what, after the Sandy debacle with the GFS and also it's horrible track record last year, if the European models (ECMWF and UKMET) which are showing something far stronger than the GFS in the Bahamas get this right, somebody needs to devote some funds to the GFS and get this model working properly. Our models should be as good as those European models.

I agree buddy! its fundamentally wrong. it needs to be re-done. It has gotten better, but continues to get whipped.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 850MB vort increasing at 114 hours:

[ronjon]

I think the ridge is going to be strong enough in which there will be no escape for Erika approaching South Florida. The odds look more likely that we will see Erika impacting Florida in the next 4-5 days unfortunately.

Well S FL does need the rain. Tryin to look on the bright side here.

[gatorcane]

Landfall Palm Beach / Broward County area, hour 126 but not that strong:

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS 114 hours and strengthening but still weak:

Blocking high means there's only one way to go...exit stage left!

[NDG]

12z GFS also shows almost perfect UL conditions for Erika as the Euro does as it approaches the FL straights, it will be much stronger than what the model shows with these kind of conditions.

[gatorcane]

GFS intensity is lower the NHC but the track is basically exactly what the NHC is showing.

[PTrackerLA]

Yikes could be GOM bound after Florida, let's hope the shear stays high...

[SouthFLTropics]

So the GFS has come in line track wise with Euro but not as strong as the Euro or HWRF. New HWRF should run soon and then the Euro. It's getting really interesting folks.

[JPmia]

Looks like GFS almost follows the NHC forecast point exactly all the way until landfall in the Broward/PBC coastline.. She's quite large too .. almost the size of FL.