ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Kohlecane]

glad to see GFS hop on board with other model consistency.. now question is who is going to peg the intensity?

[SouthFLTropics]

The track is very similar to the 1928 Cane that killed everyone in Pahokee and Belle Glade. That's and excellent analog. Let's hope Erika isn't as intense.

[gatorcane]

Looks to be West Palm Beach, zooming in, so slightly north of the NHC track:

[NDG]

12z GFS shows an eye developing on its cloud forecast as it gets into the gulf stream.

[JPmia]

12zGFS & 00z EURO southeast Florida landfall give or take 50 miles with differing intensities. Interesting.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Palm Beach county, basically the NHC track, 132 hours below:

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Erika is in no hurry to leave beautiful South Florida according to the GFS. Still there at 135 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

Drastic shift for the GFS, sends Erika through Floridas spine like 00z ECMWF

[deltadog03]

Here is what I mean, and why I think the GFS is lost with how strong this could get over the Bahamas. The shear forecasts, from its own product show me an upper level anticylone (i.e. a pretty good chance its got lower shear and good ventilation) so it can/should strengthen more than what this model shows. The GFS could end up being right, and kudos to it, but until I see the EURO and other Hurricane geared models start showing a consistant weak sheared mess...I am discounting it for the most part. There is still some weight you have to give to the GFS, but at this point it has to be VERY low.

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/7796/v5COOn.png
http://imageshack.com/a/img538/2887/N8EAvD.png
http://imageshack.com/a/img673/118/HeIGJT.png

[tgenius]

Looks to be West Palm Beach, zooming in, so slightly north of the NHC track:

The concern that I have is if all the models start lining up and agreeing with each other in general, then it becomes a crapshoot to where exactly she would make landfall. I remember very clearly that Katrina was supposed to go in through North Broward and (if memory is correct) only GFDL had her doing that SW jog down through Miami.

[Alyono]

new UKMET is well east of Florida. Does not even take 77W

[DESTRUCTION5]

That makes for a really rock solid forecast trackwise pending new Euro.

[BucMan2]

Where does the GFS show the storm going after south FL?

[JPmia]

Looks to be West Palm Beach, zooming in, so slightly north of the NHC track:

The concern that I have is if all the models start lining up and agreeing with each other in general, then it becomes a crapshoot to where exactly she would make landfall. I remember very clearly that Katrina was supposed to go in through North Broward and (if memory is correct) only GFDL had her doing that SW jog down through Miami.

That was quite a night.. get off work at 5pm.. put up shutters by 6:30pm.. hurricane at 8pm!

[Evil Jeremy]

Where does the GFS show the storm going after south FL?

Up Florida's spine.

[AdamFirst]

new UKMET is well east of Florida. Does not even take 77W

What is the intensity?

[chaser1]

At 66 hours way more organized compared to previous runs.

But it doesn't show a closed low. Even at initialization the low was open. I think that's the key as the Euro shows a closed low the entire path.

That's why I said compared to previous runs, it show a stronger vorticity on this run.
And after seeing what the GFS was forecasting 5 days ago, I am dismissing that model, it has been too conservative with Erika.

Yes agreed; I saw the shear charts as shown by Gatorcane, and actually had just been looking at the 0600Z 200mb charts minutes ago to judge the upper airflow predicted when Erika would be in the Bahamas. I believe the shear is being overdone in part, because the GFS does not see a significant storm with its attendant upper anticyclone. Add to that, that this shear is being produced by a mid latitude piece of energy that is nearly cut off as the short wave quickly lifts out. That cut off seems to be getting fed by the (El Nino enhanced?) split westerly flow, yet appears more of shear zone/line rather than a large swath of large scale flow. Though I am starting to lean more towards the EURO model given its handling of Erika, Im not yet ruling out anything. However if Erika is not significantly impacted by land interaction (from P.R. and Hispaniola), than I am beginning to lean towards a slow intensification process that might actually begin by tomm. a.m. If the EURO is in fact correct, than a fairly large envelope system potentially undergoing tremendous convective development given the very very warm SST's, then i'm left to believe that this Eastern Gulf shear zone as presently depicted, might simply act to enhance the pole-ward outflow channel and not be a cause for shear.

On another note, after reading the NHC discussion this a.m. I took some time to review the present upper air charts (and of course Satellite). Just as I stated above, I don't think that the small NE/SW slanted cut off low presently over the Caribbean looks that oppressive. Here is a circumstance where contrary to raging El Nino westerlies (which I'm frankly surprised that we're not seeing), the shear zone does not appear overly formidable and should be able to be overcome providing that Erika continues to pop new convection as she has been doing since last night. Of important note, the SST's start to jump up at a point where Erika is progged to be just north of Puerto Rico and I am guessing that if all things right now pretty much remain constant..;.. that there we will see some greater organization and strengthening begin to occur. I have to think that the GFS will continue to trend stronger with each of its runs today/tonight, but certainly by early tomm. "If" that occurs and the EURO has not yet backed off on intensity, then we may have to start considering the real possibility of Erika bombing out as it approaches just north of E. Cuba.

[Nimbus]

This is like that Zen koan "What is the sound of one hand clapping?"
The models are building up the Atlantic ridge and migrating it west.
There is another 1020 mb high currently building north near the point where the the Nevada/New Mexico/Mexican borders meet.

Better to get the warnings out early since its likely to be close enough to panic Florida regardless.
If the shear and dry air delay Erika's development maybe the Atlantic ridge won't be as strong?

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM is ramping this up now in the Bahamas. BIG change from the 00Z run

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GEM is ramping this up now in the Bahamas. BIG change from the 00Z run

Hey Gator, can you post some Gem images?


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