ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[drezee]

Interesting enough, Erika intensifies all the way up to Jacksonville while the center is overland. Look at the vort and surface velocities...

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM, yikes heading WNW

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM MUCH stronger and just misses Florida to the east, turns N when it gets over the Gulf stream:

[chaser1]

Oops... starting writing my above post when the GFS was only out at 60 hours; now catching up on everyone's posts and that the GFS is already becoming more in line with the EURO; I am curious though. Someone noted the UK being farther east?? At how many hours did it reach Miami's latitude?? I dont get that unless it's motion carried Erika way to fast. If anything, it seems that Erika is starting to slow down ever so slightly as NHC was anticipating.

[gatorcane]

So the UKMET and GEM show a hurricane but turning north east of Florida, the HWRF also showed a hurricane turning north east of Florida...trend?

[Alyono]

CMC intensifies this, but remains just offshore so far.

What we are seeing is environmental conditions in the NW Bahamas will be very favorable

[Kohlecane]

[quote="gatorcane"]12Z GEM MUCH stronger and just misses Florida to the east, turns N when it gets over the Gulf stream:[quote]

looks like GFS and GEM are both liking the near brush/landfall along spine of FL.. anxiously waiting for 12z Euro

[Bocadude85]

So the UKMET and GEM show a hurricane but turning north east of Florida, the HWRF also showed a hurricane turning north east of Florida...trend?

Thats what I am wondering. The GFS did shift north from the 6z also. Could be a trend of a close call but miss just to the east.

[bella_may]

Chances this gets in the gulf?

[Stormcenter]

I would not be concerned just yet if I lived in Florida. It still has a long journey.

[tgenius]

I think that David in 1979 did something similar didn't it? I remember hearing the stories from my parents how it looked dead set on a SFL hit and then curved up and way at last minute.

[DESTRUCTION5]

So the UKMET and GEM show a hurricane but turning north east of Florida, the HWRF also showed a hurricane turning north east of Florida...trend?

Thats what I am wondering. The GFS did shift north from the 6z also. Could be a trend of a close call but miss just to the east.

Canadian doesnt set a trend for anything...If anythink I think we will see a little windshield wiper effect now...

[boca]

Will the 5pm cone shift east because of the northward turn and why is it going north into high pressure I don't get it

[gatorcane]

We need the Euro to show it turning east of Florida and I think we will start breathing a little sigh of relief. Important Euro run coming up in 1 hour.

[Bocadude85]

Will the 5pm cone shift east because of the northward turn and why is it going north into high pressure I don't get it

We have to wait and see what the Euro shows. The models will continue to bounce around the next few days.

[ronjon]

We need the Euro to show it turning east of Florida and I think we will start breathing a little sigh of relief. Important Euro run coming up in 1 hour.

Yeah agreed GC If the mightly Euro stays east of FL then perhaps we say climatology worked in the end, lol. Of course, we'll need a few more runs with consistency to really say that. Hope we're not into days of windshield wipering with the models now.

[BigB0882]

The 12z GFS looks like this should go due West into the Gulf after crossing SFL. Why does it ride up the spine of Florida? I would think it would head West and then finally lift up to the coast somewhere in Louisiana or slightly East depending on if the High is retreating or staying in place.

[boca]

In the cone now means no hit we see it unfolding in front of us I think our luck will hold out.i think at 5pm will see the shift east depending on the euro

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVGEM looks to show an intensifying hurricane approaching SE Florida at hour 108 a little left (south) of the NHC track

[Bocadude85]

In the cone now means no hit we see it unfolding in front of us I think our luck will hold out.i think at 5pm will see the shift east depending on the euro

Yea I think either way it is going to be a close call. I mean the CMC misses us by 50-75 miles