ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[JtSmarts]

IIRC, Gustav 08's track was spot on 5 days out so it can happen. However, Erika's forecast is a much more complicated situation.

[chaser1]

I think that David in 1979 did something similar didn't it? I remember hearing the stories from my parents how it looked dead set on a SFL hit and then curved up and way at last minute.

Damn that storm really pissed me off, LOL. I was excited to experienced my first real hurricane - dud instead.

David was ravaged by making landfall over Hispanola, and never really recovered. Its entire ciculation was significantly destroyed to the point where had it just brushed the Miami coastline but as its former condition, would have still provided a significant impact to most/all of S. Florida (regardless that Miami would have been on its eastern semi-circle). This is why there are so many little nuances impacting the development and motion of a hurricane. Intensity alone impacts which steering mechanisms cause a storm to move one way or another.

[CaliforniaResident]

The 12Z NAVGEM looks to show an intensifying hurricane approaching SE Florida at hour 108.

How intense? The GFTI and GFNI both have it as a cat 4

Does anyone think this could pull off an "Andrew" and go from a TS to strong cat 4 or 5 in a very short amount of time right before making landfall?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVGEM 120 hours along the SE Coast of Florida heading N:

[Alyono]

Canadian stalls this over East NC

[chaser1]

The 12z GFS looks like this should go due West into the Gulf after crossing SFL. Why does it ride up the spine of Florida? I would think it would head West and then finally lift up to the coast somewhere in Louisiana or slightly East depending on if the High is retreating or staying in place.

From what i've seen of the forecast steering flow, I agree with you. Not to say that I would forecast Erika to drive well west into the Gulf, but it certainly is not unreasonable to see how a storm striking S. Florida might well continue into the Eastern Gulf and ride the W. edge of the ridge north or NNE'ward. I"m guessing that the ridge itself appears more round and too far south for Erika to make it up to Louisiana, but thats not to say it's out of the question. Now... Houston? Yeah, thats out of the question LOL

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF, more organize than 06Z north of Hispaniola:

[chaser1]

The 12Z NAVGEM looks to show an intensifying hurricane approaching SE Florida at hour 108.

How intense? The GFTI and GFNI both have it as a cat 4

Does anyone think this could pull off an "Andrew" and go from a TS to strong cat 4 or 5 in a very short amount of time right before making landfall?

Like most others here, I'm going to be very conservative about comparing nearly any storm to Andrew. However, its a fair question and to be very honest it is not so unreasonable to think that we "could" have a scenario where Erika might find itself under ideal conditions after a day or two, and continue to intensify to a major hurricane prior to possible Florida landfall. Unfortunately, there are enough question marks on the chalkboard right now that cause a wide range of "what ifs". Basically, there are enough signals to justify a potential for significant strengthening, but timing, overcoming shear and building its own upper high, track, etc will all play into what unfolds over the next 3-4 days.

[ronjon]

The 12z GFS looks like this should go due West into the Gulf after crossing SFL. Why does it ride up the spine of Florida? I would think it would head West and then finally lift up to the coast somewhere in Louisiana or slightly East depending on if the High is retreating or staying in place.

From what i've seen of the forecast steering flow, I agree with you. Not to say that I would forecast Erika to drive well west into the Gulf, but it certainly is not unreasonable to see how a storm striking S. Florida might well continue into the Eastern Gulf and ride the W. edge of the ridge north or NNE'ward. I"m guessing that the ridge itself appears more round and too far south for Erika to make it up to Louisiana, but thats not to say it's out of the question. Now... Houston? Yeah, thats out of the question LOL

12z GFS might be suffering some convective feedback issues. Looking at 850 mb data, it develops a sister low to its east and then northeast off the SE coast of FL which could be influencing its track.

12z GFS 117 hour

[tolakram]

12Z GFS saved images.

[Stormcenter]

GFS....enough said. IMO

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF running ...

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF at 75 hours, ramping up much more than 06Z and track is more north too:

[tolakram]

Sorry for the dup gator but your imgur account seems to be deleting older images. Many of the Danny graphics are gone. Just giving my excuse for posting as well.

[gatorcane]

Sorry for the dup gator but your imgur account seems to be deleting older images. Many of the Danny graphics are gone. Just giving my excuse for posting as well.

http://imageshack.com/a/img901/4551/vJmOJ2.png

Yeah no problem! I delete older images to save space.

[PTrackerLA]

Could be seeing an eastward shift in HWRF we'll see...

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Further north and east of previous run.

[gatorcane]

WOW HWRF is bombing this thing out - does it turn east of Florida? Bahamas would be not so fortunate with that path.

[tolakram]