ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[deltadog03]

EURO not very optimistic on this run for intensification so far. Weaker than the 00z run through HR84
edit...HR90 its starting to try and take off moving WNW it appears in the Bahamas

[SFLcane]

Lol oops! Just can't get caught up on these models.

[ROCK]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_18z.png

that was yesterdays 18z models...

[stormlover2013]

SFL CANe that is yesterdays runs its august 26th today

[gatorcane]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_18z.png

that was yesterdays 18z models...

I thought they looked familiar

[AutoPenalti]

I don't see how this could shift east all of the sudden. It hasn't even strengthen at all, and it's still heading West.

[Alyono]

MUCH weaker on the 12Z EC. EC is showing zero consistency from run to run. Not making me very confident in the output it is providing.

Whatever changes they made, they should be reversed as they have not improved the models

[Blown Away]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_18z.png

That's yesterday.

[stormlover2013]

ALOYNO, what is it showing with the ridge and trough?

[tolakram]

[Stormcenter]

Didn't we hear that (fish storm) a few days ago? Anyway it really does get kind of comical around here with this model watching.

Significant shift east on the 18z models. Hmm I smell things getting a bit fishy around here. Seriously though maybe recon data is causing eastward shift so think might see nhc shift track later tonight or tommorow if trends continue.

[AdamFirst]

I don't see how this could shift east all of the sudden. It hasn't even strengthen at all, and it's still heading West.

HWRF can be considered a high-intensity outlier. It strengthens it rather quickly - an outcome that promets earlier in this thread deemed unrealistic since conditions do not favor steady or quick strengthening over the next two days.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Isn't that position much farther north than 00z?

[SFLcane]

@RyanMaue: Today's narrative: If TS #Erika is stronger, then it will move north -- recurve further away from Florida. http://t.co/cfW3astplQ

[tolakram]

Looking at Weatherbell it appears to be about 10mb weaker than the 0z run.

[ROCK]

notice the BAMMs are out of whack as always. ...shallow,medium and deep take whats left of Erika in the GOM....lol

[gatorcane]

Isn't that position much farther north than 00z?

Track looks nearly identical to the 00Z run so far. That's one thing about the ECMWF, once it latches on to the synoptic setup, it seems to not budge much though a little weaker on intensity this run.

[deltadog03]

EURO looks close to where the NHC has there landfall point. A little further East it appears, but my lower res maps are not the greatest for smaller scale stuff. Anyway, it appears that its closer to GFS run today.

[NDG]

What I have always noticed is that tropical models will be on either sides of the official NHC's track, so in another word the NHC's track is always the best one to follow