ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[emeraldislenc]

If it survives the shear and if it heads more east could it be a threat to the coast of NC south of Cape Lookout or Cape Hatteras? Lots of ifs I know but would like some thoughts.

[chaser1]

Look how dramatic the northerly shear was for Chris though. That, and the shear hit Chris "FROM" the very direction in which the low level center was moving. Though Erika could have its low level center fully decouple from the mid level circulation, however assuming that Erika starts popping some new convection than that might well be enough to maintain some vertical integrity and help buy her the time needed to move into a less hostile area.

Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Erika were downgraded to a depression at 5:00pm, though I do think it would be a little premature for NHC to do so.

[supercane]

Latest VDM very weak without measured TS force winds this pass:

000
URNT12 KWBC 261931
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 26/19:14:26Z
B. 16 deg 12 min N
058 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 27 kt
E. 305 deg 83 nm
F. 054 deg 32 kt
G. 305 deg 84 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 20 C / 1514 m
J. 20 C / 1513 m
K. 18 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 8
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. NOAA3 0305A ERIKA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 32 KT 305 / 84 NM 18:51:47Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 299 / 45 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 010 / 07 KTS

[Alyono]

the aircraft has not found any TS winds

[wjs3]

Don't forget this is at DMIN now so the thunderstorms are weaker (lower topped) and get sheared more easily. Clearly the shear is intense right now.

I don't think it's out of the question that this opens up into a wave for at least some time. Shear is quite bad, as you observe. NHC may keep it classified, but current recon suggests there isn't a whole lot of center there.

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[ozonepete]

If it survives the shear and if it heads more east could it be a threat to the coast of NC south of Cape Lookout or Cape Hatteras? Lots of ifs I know but would like some thoughts.

Just way too early - you are right that there are too many ifs, and I would never forecast past 5 days anyway. Someone else here might be willing to go out on a limb but really I wouldn't put much faith in it. Of course I can tell you that if it did survive and threaten you it wouldn't be until around next Wednesday or Thursday at the earliest.

[Sanibel]

I'd put my money on refire.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Don't forget this is at DMIN now so the thunderstorms are weaker (lower topped) and get sheared more easily. Clearly the shear is intense right now.

I don't think it's out of the question that this opens up into a wave for at least some time. Shear is quite bad, as you observe. NHC may keep it classified, but current recon suggests there isn't a whole lot of center there.

Yup. For this to spend a day or two as an open wave or depression was always a very good possibility given the models' margin of error, and it also fits to the NHC scenario anyway since even a very weakened system can explode over that 90 degree water and low shear over the Bahamas and east of SE Florida.

[Frank2]

I think the key here is the unusually strong trough that TWC mentioned and brought chilly temps to parts of the SE this morning. Had it not been for that, the ridge would be more of an issue, but the trough is probably opening up a weakness east of Florida (just my opinion).

P.S. I remember hearing them say how chilly it was early this morning, but at first I thought they were joking - guess they weren't...

[WeatherGuesser]

the aircraft has not found any TS winds

Die, Erika, DIE!

Bring rains to those that need it, but nothing more.

[ozonepete]

Look how dramatic the northerly shear was for Chris though. That, and the shear hit Chris "FROM" the very direction in which the low level center was moving. Though Erika could have its low level center fully decouple from the mid level circulation, however assuming that Erika starts popping some new convection than that might well be enough to maintain some vertical integrity and help buy her the time needed to move into a less hostile area.

Still, I wouldn't be shocked if Erika were downgraded to a depression at 5:00pm, though I do think it would be a little premature for NHC to do so.

Well said. The shear over Chris was much stronger and it hit Chris like a ton of bricks. In that animated gif look how fast Chris got sheared off. We're not talking that kind of shear here.

[Alyono]

I believe the Chris shear was also mid level shear, while this is more upper level shear

[ozonepete]

IMHO if it refires over the center tonight it will make it to the Bahamas since the shear will be slowly lessening tomorrow evening, once it passes PR.

[WPBWeather]

IMHO if it refires over the center tonight it will make it to the Bahamas since the shear will be slowly lessening tomorrow evening, once it passes PR.

Sadly, you may be correct/

[curtadams]

I'd say Erica is already decoupled. Not to say she can't refire, because I think that's what happened yesterday, but I'm not seeing a connection between the center and the convection to the SE. When they're coupled they move together.

[fci]

Current NHC track is left of all guidance. They won't like that, but they'll be slow to adjust it eastward because they don't want to "windshield-wiper" the track over Miami then east of Miami then back to Miami. My gut is starting to say that the center will track east of Florida and will probably stay east of the Carolinas. Don't let your guard down in Florida, by any means.

Not sure recon will find 35kt winds. It's heading toward the center from the NW now and should be in the SE quadrant next. Nothing close to 35kt winds SW-NW-NE.

Wow, that's a pretty radical change from what I was reading yesterday that "recurve" was off the table.
Hope you are right!!!!

[OuterBanker]

Good afternoon. Just checking in before leaving work. Didn't many here call in the coroner last night. She survived and thrived till this afternoon. If she survives the night and does eventually make it to 25 N she will probably receive a full transplant. Dennis died because it never gained enough latitude.

Side note to Wxman. Isn't the latest Euro similar to yesterdays 0z run which was scary. It is quite a bit weaker in this run. A good thing.

[NDG]

So "we" have gone from saying the ridge is going to be so strong that Erika is going to track south of the FL Peninsula into the GOM to now that the ridge is not going to be so strong so Erika will track east of FL.
Lol, something is fishy here, I am not buying that and now some TV Mets in my area are jumping with the 18z models saying that Erika's track will shift considerable to the east.

[WPBWeather]

Well, everything from "no big deal" to "biggest threat to US" Just a regular Wed afternoon on Storm2K!

[Mouton]

I thought weak systems generally track more east west. If this is decoupling why are the models now predicting a dramatic out to sea agenda?