ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[psyclone]

Can someone please answer this question!!
The storm is taking a long time to form. That means a more westward track right?
Well how come the models are moving east and the storm hasn't even formed yet?
Some please answer this for me!!!!!!
Weather loved- not a pro met.. Just a citizen

It's simply too soon to know. It's still a long ways out...as of now there is an eastward trend...whether that still exists in a day or two remains to be seen. at the risk of sounding promotional...stay tuned.

[TheStormExpert]

Looking more likely that Florida dodges yet another storm!

[Blown Away]

150 hours... Well offshore GA... Recurve begins

['CaneFreak]

Given the poor satellite trends this afternoon, my gut feeling is that the track will shift west again for this evening's 00Z Run. We'll see. FL definitely not out of the woods.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Given the poor satellite trends this afternoon, my gut feeling is that the track will shift west again for this evening's 00Z Run. We'll see.

I agree...

[tolakram]

Not out of the woods yet.

[SouthFLTropics]

That's a strong cane near Myrtle Beach

[AutoPenalti]

Weak = Western shift
Stronger = Eastern shift

[PTrackerLA]

Wow look out Carolinas

[StarmanHDB]

Last minute turn...just like Floyd...The South Florida hurricane shield is engaged!

"LAST MINUTE" being the key words here. Not that it's going to come down to the last minute, but I really don't think we South Floridians will have a true handle on Erika until Friday's wee early morning Euro runs. The storm itself has a long way to go with quite a few obstacles to overcome. Furthermore, I don't trust that the protective ridge can hold. Either way, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

[N2FSU]

+168hr

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF 18z is running.

['CaneFreak]

Given the angle it's taking to the coast, it might be a real nail biter for FL's east coast. You might not know for sure until late Sat or Sun morning. I would be prepared for sure.

Last minute turn...just like Floyd...The South Florida hurricane shield is engaged!

"LAST MINUTE" being the key words here. Not that it's going to come down to the last minute, but I really don't think we South Floridians won't have a true handle on Erika until Friday's wee early morning Euro runs. The storm itself has a long way to go with quite a few obstacles to overcome. Furthermore, I don't trust that the protective ridge can hold. Either way, hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

[SunnyThoughts]

Man, what a close call for everyone this run. Everybody stay tuned as the models continue to hone in on their projected paths. Seems to me a LOT rides on that ridge, and if it erodes enough for the storm/cane to feel it or not. And probably won't know that for a couple more days.




Stay tuned to NHC for official forecast

[tolakram]

Talk about a last second recurve, heading NE, looks like a near miss.

[Alyono]

looks like an east turn at the very last minute

[WeatherEmperor]

Alright so who can post the Hwrf?


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[PTrackerLA]

looks like an east turn at the very last minute

Literally last minute! 933mb on Full-res GFS too, wow!

[hurricanedude]

that path would still "rough" up the OBX