ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[BobHarlem]

Hmm it stalls Erika out near the NC/SC Border drifting between Columbia, SC, Charlotte, Sc, and Fayetteville, NC. Wed-Sat Massive flooding?

[blp]

Landfall S. Carolina 156hrs.

Evening Brian.

Hey man let's see if this leads to a trend tonight. I am not surprised it came back a little. Seen this many times before.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Would be curious how well it starts it's run, if similar to the GFS as far as position and does not bomb Erica. The run might be of some use.

[northjaxpro]

This situation is getting more complicated by the hour. One major thing I got from the 0Z GFS is that ridging willbe strong enough to move Erika at least to the coast or within 50-75 miles at the very least from Florida up to SC coast potentially. But, the trough that tries to lift Erika out while along the coast does not look strong enough to me to have it escape out to sea, and therefore it is possible Erika could meander around just off the coast well into next week.

I am sipping on coffee now trying to stay up for the EURO next hour. Talk about extreme interest with the upcoming EURO run!!!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree was chatting with someone earlier we both felt it would slide back to the West.

[Bocadude85]

Landfall in the Beaufort/Charleston area, boy it's been a long time since that area has taken a direct hit. The GFS made a pretty decent shift to the west. I notice the GFS shows Erika hitting Andros Island again...if this hits Andros I have a hard time believing she misses Florida. I still have not been able to find a hurricane that struck Andros from the east and missed Florida to the east.

[fendie]

Hi-res 0z GFS (weatherbell) has 1000.7 hPa about to make landfall around Charleston, SC at 06z Wed Sep 2nd.

For the same forecast time the 18z GFS run had 992.4 hPa and about 100 miles SE of the 0z position.

[caneseddy]

CMC also shifts west to off the coast

[Kingarabian]

High Res GFS probably has a very strong Cat. 2 hurricane landfall.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Not that I follow the CMC much but by chance can you post a map of how close to S. FLA it gets.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Less than 90 miles from the Florida East Coast in 96 hours is close, especially when considering the average NHC forecast error at 48 hours is 90 miles.

[Riptide]

[ericinmia]

00z HWRF 18 hrs (Same position, as 12z & 18z, but weaker....)

[blp]

I agree was chatting with someone earlier we both felt it would slide back to the West.

Yea I still don't know if it was the stronger ridge or weaker storm causing this shift. Can't tell clearly.

[ericinmia]

Not that I follow the CMC much but by chance can you post a map of how close to S. FLA it gets.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_17.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=248

[Miami Storm Tracker]

By the way really like the update to your site very nice.

[SFLcane]

Canadian into South Florida. Pretty potent TC to

[NDG]

0z CMC also switched a little to the west from its earlier 12z run.

[SouthFloridawx]

What's causing the weakness in the ridge?

[Kingarabian]

Not that I follow the CMC much but by chance can you post a map of how close to S. FLA it gets.

Here you go: