ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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LarryWx
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#1661 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:05 am

Yes, the 0Z Euro is a little south of the 12Z Euro and is weaker. The high to the north odf also fuirther south. I'm looking for a further west track than the 12Z Euro. We'll see.
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#1662 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:06 am

Looks as if a glitch occured with my last post folks. Sorry about that. trying to fix that. to delete the duplicates.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1663 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:06 am

ECMWF @ 24hrs is slower and more southern then 00z last night

ECMWF @ 48hrs is EXACTLY on the same spot as 00z last night, but Weaker! :darrow:
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Last edited by ericinmia on Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#1664 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:07 am

72 hours looks way south compared to 12z
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1665 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:07 am

ECMWF 72 Hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1666 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:09 am

CourierPR wrote:So are we seeing the models becoming more divergent?


I dont think so, but we might all be needing some Dramamine from the east shift/west shift rocking that the models are doing
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#1667 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:09 am

Definitely a southward shift in the track by 0z EURO. 72 hour EURO looks to be moving toward the Florida Straits. Ridging is strong!!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1668 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:10 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:ECMWF 72 Hours:

Image


Way south, AND way weaker too
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#1669 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:14 am

96 hours landfall Broward/Dade County
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1670 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:14 am

ECMWF 96 Hours. Hello Miami.

Image
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#1671 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:14 am

Going up the FL spine it appears for the 0Z Euro.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1672 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:15 am

ECMWF 72 hrs (much weaker and slightly SW of 00z last night)

Image


00z Yesterday :darrow:
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Last edited by ericinmia on Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1673 Postby WPBWeather » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:15 am

LarryWx wrote:Going up the FL spine it appears for the 0Z Euro.


This is where we were yesterday!
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#1674 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:16 am

Talk about run to run shifts in the models...no consistency and we're only 96 hours out!!!
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#1675 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:16 am

:uarrow: EURO is reverting back to its solution of Erika going up the spine of the Florida peninsula, which it showed 0Z Wednesday. interesting.
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Re:

#1676 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:17 am

bahamaswx wrote:Gonna be tough to miss the Bahamas from that position at 48hrs.


Well, depends on how you define "miss". Suddenly looking at the trending "westward model shift" again, there's always the chance of Erika sliding south of most of the Bahamas. Even if that were to occur, overall size and strength would be key in guessing the extent of weather that the majority of the Bahamas would receive if Erika were to pass to the south. At minimum though, you'd all be in the Northern semicircle and likely subject to significant weather and certainly a good deal of rain.
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Re:

#1677 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:17 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:Talk about run to run shifts in the models...no consistency and we're only 96 hours out!!!


Every model cycle, the chances of more model flops lessens... At some point, they settle into a singular groove.
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Re:

#1678 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:18 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: EURO is reverting back to its solution of Erika going up the spine of the Florida peninsula, which it showed 0Z Wednesday. interesting.

Don't buy it, poofs' it out post-HP. Already down to 1002mb.
Last edited by Riptide on Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1679 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:18 am

Hopefully we will get a growing consensus of the models by Friday evening at the latest!!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1680 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:19 am

HWRF from 111hrs to 123hrs motion is practically NNNW...
Strong storm! HWRF :lol:

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