ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Talk about run to run shifts in the models...no consistency and we're only 96 hours out!!!

Every model cycle, the chances of more model flops lessens... At some point, they settle into a singular groove.

This is true...wipe back and forth and usually the answer lies somewhere in between. In this case the eventual answer might end up being Palm Beach County.

[Bocadude85]

Perhaps a shift back west at the 5am advisory?

[ericinmia]

ECMWF 96hrs Miami Landfall - (Much weaker than 00z last night, and slightly west.)

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 120 Hours. Broad and centered around Tampa.



Alright, I'm done for the evening!

Perhaps a shift back west at the 5am advisory?

I'm expecting a slight shift to the left. NHC will want to wait for some consistency.

[ericinmia]

ECMWF - 120hrs - Weak and around Tampa, FL (Slightly west from 00z last night, but Much weaker.)

[SouthFLTropics]

I don't think the Euro cooked it long enough and I think the HWRF overcooked it. Somewhere middle of the road track and intensity wise is what I'm thinking. Shall be interesting to see if the 06z comes further west.

Euro looks too weak given the favorable environment it should have in the Bahamas but the GFDL and HWRF are notorious for being too high.

[USTropics]

So basically after all the 00z runs still very low certainty on an eventual track/CONUS impact (if anything, even less certainty now). There will be a TON of new data going into the 12z runs later today though, as stormhunter7 posted in the other thread:

There are 3 planes doing research in TS Erika right now.. NASA G-Hawk.. 62kft.. to the nw now.. heading home... AF recon.. vortex storm.. and noaa p-3 doing a data request for model data by NOAA.

NOAA’s P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft will fly a Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) operational mission into Tropical Storm Erika. The P3 will depart at 2:00AM local time from Barbados and fly a seven hour mission. This flight is operationally tasked by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). EMC has requested this flight into Erika. The Doppler radar data collected during this will be transmitted in near realtime to NOAA’s hurricane weather forecast model. The dots on the flight track (shown in green) represent the aircraft turn points. The red dots in the figure show the locations that launch weather balloons twice a day while the purple dots are the locations that launch balloons once a day.

[chaser1]

I'm suspicious of the sudden decrease in intensity the EURO is showing, as compared to its last two runs. Something just seems off... with practically all the models. I'm typically used to both the EURO and the GFS being pretty "dead on" at 96 hours out. What's really unnerving is that we may well have Erika as a T.D. or weak T.S. all the way to 75W, where MOST folks will likely sit back and decide to not "go all prepper"; The obvious risk could be a rapidly deepening hurricane that begins crawling towards landfall while already producing difficult conditions for significant protection of property, boats, and potential evacuation needs. That would be a mess of a situation. Unfortunately, there's only so much that NHC could do in terms of Watches/Warnings if in fact all that was approaching was a sheared 45 knot T.S. Could be a very precarious situation.

[northjaxpro]

More uncertainty as both EURO and GFS shift considerably westward on their 0Z runs, but EURO is weaker and GFS actually stronger with Erika this run cycle. Very weird how EURO doesn't stregthen Erika on its approach to Miami.

[Hammy]

I would personally dismiss this set of runs, given that Erika seems to be at it's most organized so far as well as at it's lowest pressure--this was much weaker and that weaker data went into these model runs.

[chaser1]

More uncertainty as both EURO and GFS shift considerably westward on their 0Z runs, but EURO is weaker and GFS actually stronger with Erika this run cycle. Very weird how EURO doesn't stregthen Erika on its approach to Miami.

You would think that the global's were finally settling in on the general track, right? Then again, that's what I thought last night before another day of easterly shifts today. Northjaxpro, do you recall NHC having this same level of forecasting challenges during the past few years?

[SapphireSea]

Honestly, I think the consensus on the models is pretty obvious. There is a collapse of steering after day 3. They can not resolve with the data they have. I expect more and more slow downs every run. I personally though do not see a powerful trough coming in just yet, especially solutions that cut off pieces of energy to kick things off. (The last 3 runs of models).

[northjaxpro]

Well, I am beat. Headed to get some shuteye. Tomorrow wil be critical in terms of the models trying to gain traction and coming into some semblaence of agreement toward a solution. So much still in the air about this tropical cyclone. It is a complex forecast and i do not envy the forecasters one bit at the NHC right now, especially given the potential that exists for Erika to possibly intensify rapidly going into the weekend.

Have a great rest of the night/early morning and will catch up with you all here sometime tomorrow!

[hurricaneCW]

So basically anyone who thinks they have this storm figured out really doesn't. Everyone was so sure earlier today that Florida would miss out and here we go again with more model shifts to the west.

[Riptide]

So basically anyone who thinks they have this storm figured out really doesn't. Everyone was so sure earlier today that Florida would miss out and here we go again with more model shifts to the west.

Yeah but a 45mph TS, nothing to be concerned about. You can't have the euro intensity with a east track, sorry but I don't control the 500mb setup. The shield remains for sure.

[ericinmia]

00z Model Map - (ECMWF into Miami, not on map...)



00z GFS Ensemble Members



00z Model Intensity Forecast

[northjaxpro]

More uncertainty as both EURO and GFS shift considerably westward on their 0Z runs, but EURO is weaker and GFS actually stronger with Erika this run cycle. Very weird how EURO doesn't stregthen Erika on its approach to Miami.

You would think that the global's were finally settling in on the general track, right? Then again, that's what I thought last night before another day of easterly shifts today. Northjaxpro, do you recall NHC having this same level of forecasting challenges during the past few years?

Well, the synoptic setup for these cyclones vary of course, but as we have seen with Danny this year, and other storm examples (too tired to rattle them off at the moment lol..), the boys down at NHC have an extremely challenging task of forecasting these cyclones, even with the advances made in the past 20 years or so to enhance tropical weather forecasting, especially with forecasting intensity with these storms, the most difficult task of them all.

[ericinmia]

So basically anyone who thinks they have this storm figured out really doesn't. Everyone was so sure earlier today that Florida would miss out and here we go again with more model shifts to the west.

Yeah but a 45mph TS, nothing to be concerned about. You can't have the euro intensity with a east track, sorry but I don't control the 500mb setup. The shield remains for sure.

Not necessarily....
There are many storms, and many reasons why this storm could still landfall anywhere within the cone of error.

One example would be the Monster Cat 5's of the early 2000's, which would pump up the ridge North of them, as they transversed its outer edge. This wouldn't last for long, but it did allow them to maintain a westerly component longer than originally forecast.

Another issue could be that the Globals are misrepresenting that cut off low that is left behind from the front, causing a weakness. If this weakness is not there, or is not in the same strength, then again, situation changes.

****
In a situation with a storm that isn't well defined, and has a lot of possible land interaction, we need to wait and see if the storm survives and then see how the models handle a more defined and classic storm. Just look at how the storm looks now, vs. what the GFS and ECMWF show. Erika is finally building CDO to the N and NE which is something we haven't seen in 1-2 days at least.

(THIS IS NOT A FORECAST)

[chaser1]

Yep, i'm out as well. Fireworks are done for the night and the food stands are closing. Looking forward to another tomorrow of inconsistent development, a bit more dry air intrusion, a likely additional dose of vertical shear, more model madness, and hopefully a bit of rain for those in P.R. and the Islands who really need it!

[northjaxpro]

So basically anyone who thinks they have this storm figured out really doesn't. Everyone was so sure earlier today that Florida would miss out and here we go again with more model shifts to the west.

Yeah but a 45mph TS, nothing to be concerned about. You can't have the euro intensity with a east track, sorry but I don't control the 500mb setup. The shield remains for sure.

Careful. Remember this is just one cycle of runs. Even right now only 4 days or so potentially from Erika impacting South Florida, this or any other solution is not etched in stone yet , with the track or intensity of the storm. The next 48 hours I sincerely hope GFS and EURO will finally give us a clearer picture and come into a general agreement of how strong and eventually exactly where Erika will be within the next 4- 5 days.

I am truly off this computer now. Good rest of the morning everyone!