ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

SUN-WED...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LARGELY RELY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE EAST MOVING
NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS ACTUALLY MATCHED CLOSE TO 00Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT 00Z ECMWF RUN
KEEPS ERIKA A LITTLE WEAKER WITH A MORE
Melbourne 5am Discussion

WESTWARD TRACK...MOVING
ONSHORE THE SE FL COAST. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE IT STILL VERY IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone think they'll post TS watches for florida later today since models are shifting west again?

[jlauderdal]

SUN-WED...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LARGELY RELY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE EAST MOVING
NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS ACTUALLY MATCHED CLOSE TO 00Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT 00Z ECMWF RUN
KEEPS ERIKA A LITTLE WEAKER WITH A MORE
Melbourne 5am Discussion

WESTWARD TRACK...MOVING
ONSHORE THE SE FL COAST. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE IT STILL VERY IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.

land interaction big player on intensity and thus it can get onshore florida as weak system or will it be stronger coming off the islands and thus have a head start for intensity and more likely stay offshore fl...very tricky as usual on this route; it takes unique setup to get something strong into the east coast of florida and really unique for north florida..nhc really good on track inside 72 hours and they keep it offshore hispanola by a decent margin thus my cat 2 prediction earlier...again, track forecasting fairly straight forward on this one, intensity more mysterious than usual...reminder: they will double up on weather balloon launches in florida, ga, etc probably tomorrow and that will provide even more data for the computers to grapple with..maybe we can get aj3c to post a picture of him blowing up a weather balloon for a special sounding launch... ; or does he leave that for the newbies to do

its going to be close for SE florida; maybe closer than floyd although floyd was a real monster on intensity we never did get much even in terms of wind...couple of squalls but it was a mostly sunny event but SE florida all the way up the coast was boarded up and in shutdown mode, we might see the same thing againespecially if the models settle in on something close or onshore

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone think they'll post TS watches for florida later today since models are shifting west again?

no, too early

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone think they'll post TS watches for florida later today since models are shifting west again?

no, too early

Im wondering because my local forecast calls for ts conditions sunday and monday right now.

[jlauderdal]

Does anyone think they'll post TS watches for florida later today since models are shifting west again?

no, too early

Im wondering because my local forecast calls for ts conditions sunday and monday right now.

who is forecating ts winds for palm city?

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fpus52.KMLB.html

[SouthFLTropics]

Here is my forecast for south florida:

no landfall, point of closest approach never closer than 125 miles, cat 2 as it goes by 26.2, 80...boom or bust there you go

That's because you're planning on pulling out the generator tomorrow and firing it up isn't it? It works every time...LOL

[ObsessedMiami]

who is forecating ts winds for palm city?

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fpus52.KMLB.html

NWS Miami is forecasting POSSIBLE tropical storm conditions as early as Sunday. Maybe that's what he saw.

[SapphireSea]

Does anyone think they'll post TS watches for florida later today since models are shifting west again?

no, too early

Im wondering because my local forecast calls for ts conditions sunday and monday right now.

Because at that point its in the cards, but far from stone. I'd say Friday morning we will know with much better confidence. Im not moving an inch. Looks like a supercell killed my gazeebo under my nose though, while I was working.

[painkillerr]

While you guys are all fired up about Florida.... I'm concerned that ERIKA is trending west and will gobble up PR. Any thoughts Cycloneye?

[eastcoastFL]

who is forecating ts winds for palm city?

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fpus52.KMLB.html[/quote][/quote]


My local noaa sun-mon

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... d7kqsvD8wg

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 270850
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA A LITTLE STRONGER...CENTER PASSING BETWEEN GUADELOUPE AND
ANTIGUA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 61.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevisis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[eastcoastFL]

While you guys are all fired up about Florida.... I'm concerned that ERIKA is trending west and will gobble up PR. Any thoughts Cycloneye?

Are you under a TS warning?

[painkillerr]

While you guys are all fired up about Florida.... I'm concerned that ERIKA is trending west and will gobble up PR. Any thoughts Cycloneye?

Are you under a TS warning?

But of course.... since yesterday!

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082706, , BEST, 0, 168N, 608W, 45, 1001, TS,

[eastcoastFL]

While you guys are all fired up about Florida.... I'm concerned that ERIKA is trending west and will gobble up PR. Any thoughts Cycloneye?

Are you under a TS warning?

But of course.... since yesterday!

Best of luck to you buddy. Stay safe!

[SapphireSea]

Seeing radar from Guadeloupe, I'd say the real center, or possible new center will form just south of the island as it passes west. Winds were reported seem to support it. Watch that area where the towers form and spin around before they die off. On another note, the official center is also booking just north of west with new convection firing west of it. Will be hard to follow until we have a certain point to track.

[eastcoastFL]

Seeing radar from Guadeloupe, I'd say the real center, or possible new center will form just south of the island as it passes west. Winds were reported seem to support it. Watch that area where the towers form and spin around before they die off. On another note, the official center is also booking just north of west with new convection firing west of it. Will be hard to follow until we have a certain point to track.

Would you mind linking the radar you're using? Tha ks.

[SapphireSea]

Seeing radar from Guadeloupe, I'd say the real center, or possible new center will form just south of the island as it passes west. Winds were reported seem to support it. Watch that area where the towers form and spin around before they die off. On another note, the official center is also booking just north of west with new convection firing west of it. Will be hard to follow until we have a certain point to track.

Would you mind linking the radar you're using? Tha ks.

There are a few. Here is one.

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

[jlauderdal]

who is forecating ts winds for palm city?

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.fpus52.KMLB.html

[/quote]


My local noaa sun-mon

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... d7kqsvD8wg[/quote]

tropical storm winds possible....stay tuned, check your hurricane supplies today and tomorrow, follow nhc and mlb weather office, media is ok but be wary as there can be misinformation out there believe it or not...we could have a whole thread about what we hear and see in the media as it approaches that will be factually incorrect but that is another story...if you are on this board you are way ahead of the game as far as having info well in advance but again use your filter accordingly just like with the media