ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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NDG
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#1701 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:58 am

And the latest 06z tropical models start shifting west.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1702 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:00 am

northjaxpro wrote:
Riptide wrote:
hurricaneCW wrote:So basically anyone who thinks they have this storm figured out really doesn't. Everyone was so sure earlier today that Florida would miss out and here we go again with more model shifts to the west.

Yeah but a 45mph TS, nothing to be concerned about. You can't have the euro intensity with a east track, sorry but I don't control the 500mb setup. The shield remains for sure.


Careful. Remember this is just one cycle of runs. Even right now only 4 days or so potentially from Erika impacting South Florida, this or any other solution is not etched in stone yet , with the track or intensity of the storm. The next 48 hours I sincerely hope GFS and EURO will finally give us a clearer picture and come into a general agreement of how strong and eventually exactly where Erika will be within the next 4- 5 days.

I am truly off this computer now. Good rest of the morning everyone!


Good Night. And yes. There is no telling what will happen. The thing is that the steering will weaken to nothing with the pattern developing. The models have no idea what to do and what the flow will be like and are already making assumptions by day 4+. Be wary of ridge erosions due to phantom low pressure areas cutting off / developing though; as they dont often materialize as expected.
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#1703 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:01 am

Goodnight everyone!

I am sure that we will check back in and find new solutions from the 06z and 12z model runs, the same way that we went to sleep last night, only to find that someone left the Windshield Wipers on. :)

There is too much disparity between GFS, Euro, CMC, UKMET, etc. Being only 4 days out, this is rare. I would argue that this is due to the fact we don't have a well defined system. For DR's sake, (Rain is deadly), I hope it stays that way.... but for personal reasons, I wish that it would organize enough that the models could get a more concrete grasp on it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1704 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:10 am

00z vs 06z Model Map (LBAR has moved west.... :spam: )

00z :darrow:
Image

06z :darrow:
Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1705 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:26 am

SUN-WED...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LARGELY RELY ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE EAST MOVING
NORTHWARD JUST OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FL SUN NIGHT INTO MON
AND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS ACTUALLY MATCHED CLOSE TO 00Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER THE MORE RECENT 00Z ECMWF RUN
KEEPS ERIKA A LITTLE WEAKER WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...MOVING
ONSHORE THE SE FL COAST. THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT THERE REMAINS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM FROM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THEREFORE IT STILL VERY IMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING ERIKA.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1706 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:34 am

06z models shift westward a bit...interesting
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1707 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:37 am

With the GFS shifting west a bit I wondered if euro would follow suit and it's become apparent that it has. Given the discussion at 5am I'm starting to suspect that SFL will be put under a hurricane watch due to the possibility of it bombing out in a few days.

Of course this isn't a prediction just my thoughts.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1708 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:51 am

That recent gfs run is probably the worst scenario with it just running up the coast.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1709 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:55 am

Isn't the latest GFS run running right now? If it's every 6 hr and started running at 11:30 last night?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1710 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:01 am

tgenius wrote:Isn't the latest GFS run running right now? If it's every 6 hr and started running at 11:30 last night?


Someone just posted it above.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1711 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:02 am

tgenius wrote:Isn't the latest GFS run running right now? If it's every 6 hr and started running at 11:30 last night?


06z GFS is running right now...through hour 78 intensifying in the Central Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1712 Postby cajunwx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:03 am

06z GFS: up to hr 90.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1713 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:03 am

eastcoastFL wrote:That recent gfs run is probably the worst scenario with it just running up the coast.

worst scenario is major hurricane hitting between miam and fll and heading towards tampa; wouldnt lose much strength over the everglades, albeit shallow the water is in the upper 80s/90s, my pool is at 91 right now...would affect most property and lives....this scenario isnt anything close to that
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1714 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:06 am

jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:That recent gfs run is probably the worst scenario with it just running up the coast.

worst scenario is major hurricane hitting between miam and fll and heading towards tampa; wouldnt lose much strength over the everglades, albeit shallow the water is in the upper 80s/90s, my pool is at 91 right now...would affect most property and lives....this scenario isnt anything close to that


Obviously that would be worse but nobody is predicting a major. Im talkong about the fact it could effect so many people from us here in sfla to the mid atlantic coast.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1715 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:06 am

At hour 90 GFS may be just a hair east of the 00z run...looks stronger as well.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1716 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:07 am

GFS at 93 hours is near SE FL. Not sure of intensity, but that's up in the air right now.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1717 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:08 am

eastcoastFL wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:That recent gfs run is probably the worst scenario with it just running up the coast.

worst scenario is major hurricane hitting between miam and fll and heading towards tampa; wouldnt lose much strength over the everglades, albeit shallow the water is in the upper 80s/90s, my pool is at 91 right now...would affect most property and lives....this scenario isnt anything close to that


Obviously that would be worse but nobody is predicting a major. Im talkong about the fact it could effect so many people from us here in sfla to the mid atlantic coast.
it does cost a great deal of money for preperation to be sure, floyd preperation was very expensive...a run up the coast would be pricey even if it never touches land
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1718 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:09 am

To close for comfort...angle of attack and a slight shift left and it would be onshore.
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#1719 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:19 am

06z GFS is definitely ever so slightly to the east and stronger.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1720 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:22 am

The GFS just wants to cut off that trough into a mid/upper low so bad. Im, honestly not sure about this run. Also, I don't think Erika has a discernible center right now either. But, if by end of day the existing trough amplifies more, I will say the east shifts will verify and will create a consensus soon.
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