ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1721 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:25 am

06z HWRF now running
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1722 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:26 am

GFS Stalling it 150-250 miles east of Jacksonville?
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#1723 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:28 am

Through 12 hours HWRF SE of 00z run.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1724 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:30 am

Obviously that would be worse but nobody is predicting a major. Im talkong about the fact it could effect so many people from us here in sfla to the mid atlantic coast.[/quote] it does cost a great deal of money for preperation to be sure, floyd preperation was very expensive...a run up the coast would be pricey even if it never touches land[/quote]

You are right about that. I spent thousands eoth Jeanne and Francis on generators alone. Then Wilma hit my wallet again.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1725 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:33 am

HWRF looks to hit Puerto Rico head on at 21 hours.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1726 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:47 am

06z GFS... Stronger and closest approach to SFL is between Grand Bahama and Jupiter (@50 miles) and then begins a loop back SE offshore and very strong... Heads SE from offshore Jacksonville for a day or 2 then recurves... Not a clear cut exit route...
Image
06z GFS... 102 Hours... Closest point to Florida

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06z GFS... Hours... Position after moving SE from offshore Jacksonville for a few days and just before recurving out to sea...
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:08 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1727 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:50 am

Both ensemble runs of 00z ECM and GEM further west than their operational runs.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1728 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:55 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:HWRF looks to hit Puerto Rico head on at 21 hours.


Farther W through 48 hours and weaker...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1729 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:01 am

06z HWRF... Farther W through 54 hours... Weaker... N tip of Inagua Island
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1730 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:13 am

Hmmm...HWRF seems to be mimicking Euro so far.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1731 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:15 am

06z HWRF... Just SE of Andros at 75 hours... Way west of 00z... Much weaker than 00z... Getting stronger at this point and moving WNW...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1732 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:18 am

06z HWRF... Over Andros Island at 81 hours... 62 mph TS at this time... Moving WNW...
Image
Last edited by Blown Away on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1733 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:19 am

Wow that's way west there. Slowly intensifying nearing FL.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1734 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:20 am

06Z HWRF shows a pretty asymmetric storm at 81 hours, probably because of vertical wind shear.

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1735 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:24 am

Hey Dadefish, where do you get the GFDL/HRFL models runs so early?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1736 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:26 am

Steve H. wrote:Hey Dadefish, where do you get the GFDL/HRFL models runs so early?



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=05L&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082700&fh=150&xpos=0&ypos=566
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#1737 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:28 am

Thanks!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1738 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:28 am

06z HWRF... 93 hours a 63 mph TS and ramping up... Moved over Andros Island and appears to be moving WNW... Waaaay West of 00z...
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#1739 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:33 am

Getting much better organized as it approaches FL:

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1740 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:33 am

06z HWRF... 102 hours a 68 mph TS and pressure dropping... Appears to be moving NW...
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