ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SFLcane]

Interesting...

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... 108 hours a 72 mph TS and pressure dropping... Appears to be moving NW... 25 miles E of Jupiter...

[SFLcane]

1979 David type track here

[tolakram]

Looks like another near miss, and yet the euro wipes back west. Not sure we have any clue yet.

[NDG]

There should be able to be continuing westward shift of the tropical models on the next 12z early package with Erika still moving at a 280 deg angle, not gaining much latitude if any during the night.

[SFLcane]

That would likely bring TS conditions across sfl hurricane force gusts

[Bocadude85]

HWRF pretty much has the eyewall onshore at 111 hours

[stormlover2013]

I am going to go look at the trough on models here in about 45 mins, to see if it digs as for south and also moves quick to the east coast, it's all about the trough

[tolakram]

I was looking at historical tracks and realized just how rare a Florida east coast hit is. The vast majority of storms approaching from this direction recurve, many at the last second.

Using this tool: http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/ I set a 40 mile radius circle near PR.



I wouldn't read anything definitive into this, personally I don't think we have enough data to really understand the trends, but it's a nice map with colorful lines, so there you go.

[tolakram]

A wobble and then smacks onshore.

[Blown Away]

06z HWRF... 120 hours Strong TS near Cat 1 Hurricane Landfall Near Melbourne... From @100 hours it moved very slowly NNW, door shutting to the north???...

[drezee]

Breaking News!! The AF Recon Flew to the NHC position to find the center and found E winds at 6k ft. It has turned SW to find the center. This is major major news! If the center has shifted SE, then the models will be initialized there for 12z....fun and games my Storm2k friends

[AdamFirst]

A wobble and then smacks onshore.

http://imageshack.com/a/img540/5388/NA2Q7J.png

On the run it hits the eject button after it goes through Andros...essentially moving away from Dade and Broward but potentially putting the core on the east coast from Palm Beach County north.

[BucMan2]

I believe the last euro run showed a track up the middle of the state is that stipp possible and is the West Coast of Florida still in play?

[tolakram]

One more. This time I set a smaller 25 mile radius circle near this mornings position and I do pick up some more storms hitting Florida, 1928 and 1933, and Jeanne (2004 after a loop). Again, this is mostly for curiosity.



source: http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

[drezee]

6k center at 16.35N and 62.75W. NHC at 9z 16.8 and 61.5w
000
000
URNT15 KNHC 271152
AF303 0605A ERIKA HDOB 11 20150827
114300 1624N 06225W 8120 01888 0077 +165 +160 143019 020 023 003 01
114330 1623N 06226W 8106 01897 //// +156 //// 158019 022 025 003 05
114400 1623N 06228W 8114 01888 0077 +161 +155 164019 022 022 002 05
114430 1622N 06229W 8114 01886 0073 +167 +154 167021 022 021 001 00
114500 1622N 06231W 8119 01879 0072 +165 +158 166021 022 021 002 00
114530 1621N 06233W 8124 01875 0068 +169 +158 182018 020 020 002 03
114600 1621N 06234W 8123 01873 0062 +178 +146 191018 018 017 000 00
114630 1622N 06236W 8127 01867 0060 +177 +155 186019 020 017 000 03
114700 1622N 06238W 8128 01866 0060 +175 +156 183018 020 020 002 00
114730 1622N 06239W 8125 01869 0053 +183 +153 184014 016 016 001 00
114800 1622N 06241W 8110 01882 0048 +188 +145 202013 015 018 001 00
114830 1623N 06243W 8124 01866 0048 +182 +164 182010 012 015 000 03
114900 1623N 06244W 8130 01856 0048 +185 +169 114005 009 017 000 03
114930 1622N 06246W 8119 01873 0049 +187 +154 007005 006 020 001 00
115000 1621N 06247W 8124 01871 0052 +187 +151 349005 008 021 001 00
115030 1620N 06249W 8130 01867 0052 +191 +144 314014 015 022 000 00
115100 1618N 06250W 8127 01868 0052 +195 +137 308014 015 018 001 00
115130 1617N 06251W 8127 01872 0050 +200 +138 319011 013 019 001 00
115200 1616N 06252W 8132 01874 0063 +193 +141 314011 012 021 001 03
115230 1615N 06251W 8105 01901 0067 +185 +144 294012 013 /// /// 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

Final frame, back onshore.

[CourierPR]

Breaking News!! The AF Recon Flew to the NHC position to find the center and found E winds at 6k ft. It has turned SW to find the center. This is major major news! If the center has shifted SE, then the models will be initialized there for 12z....fun and games my Storm2k friends

That would be a fly in the ointment. I would expect to see the models shift again. Hang on Sloopy.

[AdamFirst]

I believe the last euro run showed a track up the middle of the state is that stipp possible and is the West Coast of Florida still in play?

Anything is still possible. A track up the middle of the state would bring impacts to a lot of people. West Coast of Florida is already in a surplus in terms of rain, so a tropical system could aggravate already saturated land, especially up towards Tampa and St. Petersburg

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.