ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

Well that's a bit of...awkward positioning

[NDG]

I hope TV mets along the FL east coast are not sounding the all clear this morning because the official tracking shifting eastward during the past 18 hrs. People may come home to a surprise when they get home from work.

[tolakram]

Probably multiple LLC's at the moment, as the HWRF has predicted. We'll have to watch closely to see if it snaps north or stays west and possibly goes right over PR. In my opinion.

[NDG]

Well that's a bit of...awkward positioning

http://i.imgur.com/6xThB8t.gif

That's what I have been pointing out during the past 12 hrs, Erika has moved almost due west if not due west during the night, they are going to have to shift the track to the left on the next 11 AM advisory at least through the next 24-48hrs, bringing it over parts of P.R., she will have to move almost NW during the next 6 hrs for her to get back on the official track.

[wzrgirl1]

This is going to be one of the closest calls that we have had in awhile due to the trajectory. I think tonight the models will hone in on an area because at that point it will be about 72 hours. If South Florida is in the cone this evening that I do believe that by tomorrow night we will be under some kind of watch. Just my opinion. Stay tuned to the NHC for updates.

[Blown Away]

Well that's a bit of...awkward positioning

As much as the NHC loves them some TVCN consensus, they made subtle change when the TVCN was well east of the Bahamas and can easily swing back if that is the trend...

[drezee]

Recon did a center drop at 16.4N and 62.8W and found the center with a 10kt N wind....this is big news for downstream

[WeatherEmperor]

This is going to be one of the closest calls that we have had in awhile due to the trajectory. I think tonight the models will hone in on an area because at that point it will be about 72 hours. If South Florida is in the cone this evening that I do believe that by tomorrow night we will be under some kind of watch. Just my opinion. Stay tuned to the NHC for updates.

Hey i saw your PM. For some reason I cannot respond when on Tapatalk lol. I agree with you. I think its going to be a close call. I dont see it landfalling in our area but its gonna be close


Sent from my iPhone6 using Tapatalk

[Alyono]

Hispañiola is now in play

[AdamFirst]

As much as the NHC loves them some TVCN consensus, they made subtle change when the TVCN was well east of the Bahamas and can easily swing back if that is the trend...

The consensus is skewed a bit by the GFDL eastern outlier. GFDL goes nuclear with the storm from the getgo and curves it away early...clearly a highly improbable if not impossible scenario.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning everyone. Well, this morning the trend is continuing with the models shifting west. I am more and more feeling thst Erika will be making her impacts felt the nect 4-5 days across the Bahamas and all along potentially along the Florida East Coast. It is just a matter of the intensity and how close she will get to Florida or even landfall as 0Z Euro runs showed. So many factors, including a quite plausible scenario of Erika stalling just offshore going out 156 hours.


Complex situation to say the least.

[robbielyn]

bay news 9 said yesterday that a strong cold front could pull it north for what that's worth. Things change. Now I notice at times its towards fl then east of fl then towards fl but usually ends up east as the finally say. this is interesting as this is changing hour by hour.

[psyclone]

Remember that watches are issued with 48 hours of lead time so still a ways to go before that happens in Fl...we don't even have watches for the northwest Bahamas yet. still plenty of time..

[SouthDadeFish]

To put it simply, this storm is poorly organized at the moment. Multiple wind shifts found by recon is indicative of eddies rotating around a mean vortex center.

[AdamFirst]

To put it simply, this storm is poorly organized at the moment. Multiple wind shifts found by recon is indicative of eddies rotating around a mean vortex center.

Could the current position as classified at the 8 AM advisory be accurate, or do you believe it's a bit more north due to the multiple shifts?

[tolakram]

Just coming into range of the CONUS visible.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=gray

[Patrick99]

It is poorly organized. I think people are getting faked out by the big ball of convection and think it's somehow better off than it is. It's a sheared storm...shear may not be enough to kill it completely, but this is probably how it's going to be for a few more days.

[Frank2]

As mentioned in yesterday afternoon's TCD, there's a chance the system will dissipate before conditions improve - the forecast of 30 kts of shear the next couple of days doesn't bode well (for the system)...

[redneck51]

Gustywind? What about a little report about what Erika is doing to Guadeloupe? It's straight over your head right now, right?

[tolakram]

If you look at the broader picture using MIMIC-TPW you can, I think, get a better idea where the overall center is.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

saved 7MB image: http://imageshack.com/a/img537/7638/dNOJiD.gif