ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

Traversing even part of Hispaniola is going to be a game changer IMO, that's a tough island to cross and stay reasonably intact.

[OuterBanker]

OMG, it's a typo. Shifted. Sorry!

[Blown Away]

Traversing even part of Hispaniola is going to be a game changer IMO, that's a tough island to cross and stay reasonably intact.

I see a door closing once the models reaching offshore Jacksonville... I see no NE turn in these models, that concerns me in SFL...

[tolakram]

Traversing even part of Hispaniola is going to be a game changer IMO, that's a tough island to cross and stay reasonably intact.

I see a door closing once the models reaching offshore Jacksonville... I see no NE turn in these models, that concerns me in SFL...

So we want weak, as weak as we can get it IMO. If it's strong then it may miss SFL but hit the Carolinas or just wander around off the coast for a while. Moderate looks like it hits somewhere on the Florida coast. ^ i said we ... I'm in Kentucky, so not really we.

[got ants?]

Hey STORM2K, another year, and here we are again...

Why does it appear to me that all the models currently show Erika tracking into PR, if not on the northern side, but to me, it appears she is heading either directly into PR, and even on the south side?

What also appears to me is her track is going further and further south? Can she she slide under PR, and even under Hispaniola?

[Portastorm]

Traversing even part of Hispaniola is going to be a game changer IMO, that's a tough island to cross and stay reasonably intact.

I see a door closing once the models reaching offshore Jacksonville... I see no NE turn in these models, that concerns me in SFL...

So we want weak, as weak as we can get it IMO. If it's strong then it may miss SFL but hit the Carolinas or just wander around off the coast for a while. Moderate looks like it hits somewhere on the Florida coast. ^ i said we ... I'm in Kentucky, so not really we.

Over the years I have seen a lot of folks talk about "Shredderola" for Hispaniola with regards to tropical systems. That generally holds true for better organized, more vertically intact storms. The less organized Erika is, the less likely the storm will be ripped about by the island IMO.

[AtlanticWind]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =M&ps=area

Hey , Where is everybody , The all important NAM is running

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_036_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150827+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=area

Hey , Where is everybody , The all important NAM is running

The NAM is the cadillac of all models

[Evil Jeremy]

The NAM does have some usefulness in situations such as this. Although the NAM is useless for tracking storms, it does a very good job at forecasting the overall environment that will guide the storm, and can give us an indication what the GFS will do the next hour.

[gatorcane]

Penn state image of 00Z ECMWF which shows a tropical storm into South Florida. Looks like Miami-Dade there but obviously too far out to pinpoint. Heading is NW at this point.

[Bocadude85]

In my opinion if Erika slams into Hispaniola she very well may not survive. She still looks to be moving west. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show. I would guess a weaker Erika further west.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM with 500MB and 700MB flow pattern:

[SouthFLTropics]

In my opinion if Erika slams into Hispaniola she very well may not survive. She still looks to be moving west. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show. I would guess a weaker Erika further west.

I think worst case scenario for South Florida is a weaker Erika in the short to medium term and then a rapidly intensifying Erika to the NW of Hispaniola. Weak enough to keep it coming west and then strong enough to start pulling out but not in time enough to avoid the peninsula.

SFT

[Portastorm]

In my opinion if Erika slams into Hispaniola she very well may not survive. She still looks to be moving west. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show. I would guess a weaker Erika further west.

I think worst case scenario for South Florida is a weaker Erika in the short to medium term and then a rapidly intensifying Erika to the NW of Hispaniola. Weak enough to keep it coming west and then strong enough to start pulling out but not in time enough to avoid the peninsula.

SFT

Completely agree ... the assumption that a weaker Erika gets ripped apart by the islands is not well founded. It probably would have been better for everyone if the storm was already well developed. That would have probably ensured some disruption per the islands and a "fish" track east of the CONUS.

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM west of Andros at 81 hours:

[SunnyThoughts]

So, if there is indeed a center relocation, all the 12z models should be taken with a grain of salt I take it, considering they will have been initialized in the wrong place correct? And we would have to wait until 18z or maybe even the next suite to get actual credible information ?



Not a forecast, stay tuned to NHC for official statements.

[Blown Away]

06z GFDL... Hour 12... 94 mph Cat 2 Hurricane SE Of PR... I'm no expert, but this is not to be considered... As Usual It's A Monster At Hour 126 To The East

[gatorcane]

12Z NAM 850MB vort as it turns NW:

[SouthFloridian92]

Yep the 11 AM NHC advisory moved the model west.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS begins at 11:30AM EDT