ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

I do not envy the forecaster on duty at the NHC right now...tough call on the 11:00AM forecast and discussion.

SFT

I would punt until the 5pm advisory. I would do a midpoint adjustment on the track between the previous position. I would need to know how the 12z models feel about the center reformation...

I agree...punt is the way to go. But at some point this might become a 4th down passing situation. Tough calls ahead for sure.

SFT

[ConvergenceZone]

I imagine if the track does shift west that they will weaken it due to land interaction. I remember a met mentioning on here that the only chance Erica has is if she stayed north of the islands.....

[tolakram]

11:00 AM AST Thu Aug 27
Location: 16.4°N 63.3°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[ScottNAtlanta]

I do not envy the forecaster on duty at the NHC right now...tough call on the 11:00AM forecast and discussion.

SFT

Now is when you separate the veteran forecasters for model chasers. Its a very tough call...and as one of my Brazilian friends just said "Erika is in a big ol mess" so true!

[BobHarlem]

NHC Track shifted slightly west, midway between Freeport and West Palm Beach as a cat 1 on Monday morning.

[gatorcane]

NHC shifted track west

[Sanibel]

Erika could be pulling a Danny. That new vortex might be a decoupled mid-level reflection of the weakened surface spiral.


I don't think it is a relocated center because they usually don't relocate anti-poleward. Plus you can make out a very indistinct surface spiral moving along by the trop points.


The convection stayed symmetrical and didn't diminish like yesterday.


We can only see how it plays out.


Edit: I see NHC initialized the Caribbean vortex.

[gatorcane]

Well look at that:

It's essentially a consensus of the reliable GFS and ECMWF in my opinion:

[Blown Away]

11am Almost on FL coast as a Hurricane and looks like major deceleration...

[SunnyThoughts]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 63.3W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 62.5W

taken from update

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Well look at that:

It's essentially a consensus of the reliable GFS and ECMWF in my opinion:

And very close to what the lately reliable HWRF is currently showing

[tolakram]

Erika could be pulling a Danny. That new vortex might be a decoupled mid-level reflection of the weakened surface spiral.


I don't think it is a relocated center because they usually don't relocate anti-poleward. Plus you can make out a very indistinct surface spiral moving along by the trop points.


The convection stayed symmetrical and didn't diminish like yesterday.


We can only see how it plays out.

Erica is much much larger. Take a look at the MIMIC-TPW. See how Danny stopped spinning and washed out just south of PR? Erika's overall circulation is much larger so I don't think the same kind of dissipation can happen in this case.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[Evil Jeremy]

Pasch sums it up best:

"In short, potential impacts for
the Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain."

[psyclone]

Very close shave for the FL east coast...and it takes a day to crawl from offshore Palm Beach county to the cape...the beaches would take a beating in that scenario.

[galaxy401]

So it looks like a recurve off Florida missing the US east coast is probably not going to happen?

[Aric Dunn]

will know more once recon passes through the area again. but looking at the data appears there is another vort that developed at least right now explaining the apparent motion of the center.

[Frank2]

After reading the latest discussion, I'm sticking with my earlier comment - dissipation is a possibility, as the other NHC forecasters mentioned in the past couple of days...

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[Sanibel]

Agreed Tolakram. Just catching up.


If it shifts west again Erika will weaken over Hispaniola.


If it keeps shifting west Florida could be in the crosshairs again.


Erika never lost convection when transiting to the Caribbean.

[Aric Dunn]

if it takes that close of a path to DR its not likely to survive as it is.. would very likely open up and possibly re develop.

[SouthFLTropics]

And Pasch comes in to punt...and it's a good, solid kick. Think that was really their only option at this time given the current unknowns. Hispaniola has become a huge X factor in this entire forecast.

SFT