ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1821 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:39 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1822 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:39 am

Looks like it is trying to run the gauntlet between the two islands.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1823 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:40 am

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#1824 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:41 am

I don't think 12Z initialized correctly.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1825 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:41 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1826 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:41 am

tolakram wrote:Image


drezee wrote:Based on recon, I almost feel like Erika has an elongated trough axis to the SW with an eddy "LLC" attached. She better get it right before the shear comes back. This is not a robust structure to tackle shear, let alone Hispaniola.


You mess with Hispaniola and you get the horns!!!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1827 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:42 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1828 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:43 am

I think it skirts the north coast.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1829 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:43 am

500mb ridging does not look as strong this run. Might turn it north quicker.

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1830 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:44 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1831 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:500mb ridging does not look as strong this run. Might turn it north quicker.

SFT


Scratch that...by hour 30 it looks to fill back in.
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#1832 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 am

Threading the needle in the Mona Passage
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1833 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 am

Hispaniola shreds it on the 12Z GFS. Not much left on the other side.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1834 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:46 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1835 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:47 am

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1836 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:48 am

LarryWx wrote:Hispaniola shreds it on the 12Z GFS. Not much left on the other side.


Hour 42 it's north of Hispaniola and still intact.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1837 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:49 am

I'll put $20 on west coast this run. :D

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1838 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:49 am

Looks like there might be an exit to the north there...Not sure.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1839 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:50 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Hispaniola shreds it on the 12Z GFS. Not much left on the other side.


Hour 42 it's north of Hispaniola and still intact.


High res vs low res GFS tell a completely different tale...of course it's the same run :)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1840 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:51 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Hispaniola shreds it on the 12Z GFS. Not much left on the other side.


Hour 42 it's north of Hispaniola and still intact.


I realize that but it is much weaker. Let's see if it regains a lot of strength. It may very well do that.
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