ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[N2FSU]

+105hr

[tolakram]

[JPmia]

I am not sure we can believe any models at the moment until she actually has a center to initialize the model with... right? For example, if this latest GFS run is just a hair north of the current NHC center fix won't that have down the road track implications? If she keeps moving west I can see the cone of death move west with her.

[deltadog03]

Landfall near PBI (not very strong and moving NNW) H5 weakness (to its north) is closing rapidly as well. Is it me, or does the weakness over the SE pushing back far enough SW (near TX)? That would allow this to come further west as well folks.

[tolakram]

[Dean4Storms]

It's already a good 60 miles to the west of the 11am position and still moving West still off the NHC forecast track, you're going to have to shift all these models runs in your thinking a bit westward in the outcome IMO.

[deltadog03]

HR114 its riding up the coastline, and from looking at the H5 maps is trying to get a bit stronger. prob heading toward JAX

[tolakram]

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like a fairly small cyclone in the GFS on this run.

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

Very David like track there...Coastal raker.

[AdamFirst]

I'd start taking more weight into these model runs once Erika gets north of Hispaniola, if she does at all at this juncture.

[tolakram]

[Evil Jeremy]

If the weakness is strong enough, at a certain point the current displacement of Erika (compared to where the models have her initialized) is midigated by time.

[SouthFLTropics]

Biggest storm concern I've always had is a disorganized system coming off of Haiti and approaching FL from the SSE while deepening rapidly under ideal conditions. Not sure of the conditions for organization but they seem to be relatively decent for strengthening once she gets north of Haiti...assuming she survives the trek.

SFT

[tolakram]

[ronjon]

We're literally splitting hairs now on thse model runs - up the coast, thru the spine, just offshore GOM. Ultimate track will depend on storm intensity and center reformations so this is going to be a very difficult forecast for NHC. Good thing though, it'll probably remain weak prior to any landfall.

[tolakram]

[eastcoastFL]

Landfall near PBI (not very strong and moving NNW) H5 weakness (to its north) is closing rapidly as well. Is it me, or does the weakness over the SE pushing back far enough SW (near TX)? That would allow this to come further west as well folks.

What is the intensity forecast for a landfall in palm beach? thanks

[deltadog03]

GFS is going to pull a very rare SAV landfall *or dang near close* looks like its strengthening a bit as well as it gets closer in.