ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[tolakram]

3 different views of the init. Might be close.

[chaser1]

MU moves this back offshore after landfall and threatens to do a Sandy, before going to Nova Scotia... in 16 days

Please excuse what may be a stupid question, but what is the MU? Until Danny, I have never heard of that unless by MU you mean Mad Uncle ie CMC.

GFS

Thanks, I found that confusing as well.

[Steve]

Damn. In 24 hours we've gone from tons of people starting to breathe sighs of relief to a potential coast running, multiple landfalling system. You'd have to think the strongest points would be sort of between latitudes 27 (roughly around Jupiter) and 35 North (roughly Jacksonville/Morehead City, NC) assuming the system is in the Atlantic during that time. If it's onshore in Florida, not so much or even the Eastern Gulf where it could ramp up a bit, but probably not as much as if it was in the Atlantic this weekend due to synoptics. Based on various model runs, we could have all or some of landfalls in SE FL, E FL, GA, SC, NC, mid-Atlantic States and Eastern Canada. Can't wait to see tonight's runs and then tomorrow to see if the models hone in on the eventual track. Could be a sheared, messy system or it could be a major. Pretty cool system with a lot of unkonwns at this point and the potential to affect tens of millions of people too.

[tolakram]

I will post this in the disc thread as well but the LLC is moving north/northwest now so a big change might not be expected.

[deltadog03]

EURO, started running, as y'all can see.....looks like its going to go right over the heart of PR

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The two pm was still west?

[BucMan2]

Gator
how far west do you think this may go? Is west coast of Florida Naples to big bend still in play?

[Blown Away]

That HWRF run is concerning.

At 75 hours.. A 65mph TS... The reds make it look worse...

[tolakram]

[SouthFLTropics]

That HWRF run is concerning.

At 75 hours.. A 65mph TS... The reds make it look worse...

Agreed...but concerning that it is on the upward swing and crossing the GS

[Steve]

I will post this in the disc thread as well but the LLC is moving north/northwest now so a big change might not be expected.

Could be a response to the remnants of Danny riding up that trough; could be Erika sensing Puerto Rico and wanting to go around it; could be the low level center getting blown slightly north from the shear blowing up out of the Eastern Caribbean. Likely a temporary move IMHO.

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Gator
how far west do you think this may go? Is west coast of Florida Naples to big bend still in play?

Not Gator, but the NHC Discussion at 11 takes it to 80W at 120 hours. That's also as far out as the forecast advisory goes, so 80.

[deltadog03]

EURO is going to skirt/just north of the bigger islands (DR/Haiti) moving WNW. not that strong, but starting to get a bit stronger.

[BucMan2]

thank you Steve!

[tgenius]

EURO is going to skirt/just north of the bigger islands (DR/Haiti) moving WNW. not that strong, but starting to get a bit stronger.

Basically threads the needle between them. I wonder if that will shift it east since it would theoretically be a stronger storm?

[tolakram]

Euro cranking this up fairly quickly.

[deltadog03]

EURO is going to skirt/just north of the bigger islands (DR/Haiti) moving WNW. not that strong, but starting to get a bit stronger.

Basically threads the needle between them. I wonder if that will shift it east since it would theoretically be a stronger storm?

Not at that point. The ridge is strong to its North and NE...but, overall the euro has a weak system there.

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

That's a classic strike point!!