Models trending weaker and weaker. It'll likely be a strong TS/CAT 1 at peak. If it survives at all. Yesterday I thought there was a chance it may hit cat 2 but those odds are looking quite low now.
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ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models
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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
12z Euro sort of raises an eyebrow with a track about 75-100 miles further west and she would spend a good bit of time over the eastern GOM possibly allowing strengthening.
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deltadog03
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Re: Re:
Blown Away wrote:deltadog03 wrote:I think there is no doubt they shift the cone back WEST at 5pm. Not a lot, but prob. around what the GFS and HWRF are showing. I think the EURO is too weak, but if you blend it all......ready for this? a landfall point near MIA looks possible at this point then riding northward through the spine of FL. Euro goes to the eastern gom..hahah
Watched your facebook video track last night, thought it was crazy... Funny how things change... Spot on per the 11am prediction...
LOL thank you! We shall see, but I think thats a good blend.
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
If you split the models and go in the middle, that would have the storm riding the spine all the way up through FLA. Since we do not know if it will be off shore east coast, or west coast if either and will it have time to get stronger still a little unknown at this point.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Image courtesy of TheHurricaneAlley.com
ECMWF forecast track comparison
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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
hcane27 wrote:
Image courtesy of TheHurricaneAlley.com
ECMWF forecast track comparison
The dates on those runs are all jacked up!
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
18z Model Tracks...
18z Intensity... First Cat 5 I've Seen.
18z Model Tracks...
18z Intensity... First Cat 5 I've Seen.
18z Model Tracks...
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Dean4Storms wrote:hcane27 wrote:
Image courtesy of TheHurricaneAlley.com
ECMWF forecast track comparison
The dates on those runs are all jacked up!
Those are the run dates .... the tags shoe the run dates
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
After looking at the current satellite loop I'm thinking the center fix earlier today was not that meaningful,especially since the center has raced north since then and is currently building convection. Looks to be returning to a position just a little south of this mornings track. We shall see.
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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
meaning?
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Andy D
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
ROCK wrote::uarrow: look at at the spread on the GFS Ensemble members.....wow...
That big of a spread left and right screams stall or slow mover to me...
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SouthFLTropics
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Re:
Dean4Storms wrote:Strange, ECM has Erika at 46kts at 60 hrs and weakens it to 35kts prior to landfall.
I think the ECM is picking up on stronger SW shear in the Gulf at that time.
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Weatherboy1
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
tolakram wrote:After looking at the current satellite loop I'm thinking the center fix earlier today was not that meaningful,especially since the center has raced north since then and is currently building convection. Looks to be returning to a position just a little south of this mornings track. We shall see.
My two cents? The LLC and MLC are trying to vertically stack -- with the LLC getting dragged N and a bit E of N, while the MLC and fresh convection is getting dragged N and W. IF that is right, and the centers can align and stay that way, Erika may begin strengthening soon.
Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts, as always!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
ROCK wrote::uarrow: look at at the spread on the GFS Ensemble members.....wow...
Are the GFS Ensemble members indicating faster forward motion, or higher (stronger) winds.
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Andy D
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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
chaser1 wrote::uarrow: meaning?
It weakens it from just north of Eastern Cuba to near Miami, I would have expected at least a slow strengthening over those VERY warm SST's!
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
tolakram wrote:After looking at the current satellite loop I'm thinking the center fix earlier today was not that meaningful,especially since the center has raced north since then and is currently building convection. Looks to be returning to a position just a little south of this mornings track. We shall see.
Wouldn't that mean a shift back to the east?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Out of curiosity, does anyone recall if the UK and the NAV-GEM's 12Z runs were trending weaker or stronger than their respective 0Z & 6Z runs?
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Andy D
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