ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Annie Oakley
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#2061 Postby Annie Oakley » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:06 pm

YoshiMike-love your signature statement. Wish you the best towards a career in weather-just this site itself will help you tremendously towards your goal. :D
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#2062 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:14 pm

Anyone else notice that NHC isn't displaying positioning fix or wind intensity at their home page?
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#2063 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:15 pm

18z models starting soon, but they are somewhat redundant since we're getting Gulfstream IV data for the 00z set.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2064 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:18 pm

Interesting that there was no mention of the 12z Euro in the 5pm discussion.

Doesn't look like they bought too much into it's dramatic westward shift, as evidenced by the updated track forecast. I guess they are waiting for some run to run consistency.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2065 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:24 pm

Never say never when it comes to the tropics.

PTrackerLA wrote:I wouldn't be too concerned about the GFS ensembles with central Gulf Coast solutions. According to weatherbell none of them are sub-1000mb.
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#2066 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:48 pm

18Z GFS 30 hours:

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#2067 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:52 pm

:uarrow: Ridge looks weaker @ 30hrs. compared to 12z.
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#2068 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:54 pm

54 hours:

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#2069 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:55 pm

Thats quite a lift out from where Erica is at the moment on the 18z, but I've seen system make quite large jolts to the north/south around this area of the Caribbean in the past.

Such a track would be suggestive of a stronger system into the Bahamas and probably a right adjustment of track.
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#2070 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:56 pm

66 hours:
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#2071 Postby wjs3 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:56 pm

Gfs opens it into a wave for some time over/past Hispaniola, then closes back off in SE Bahamas.
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#2072 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:57 pm

GFS seems to weaken this steadily over the next two days--this run looks weaker overall so far.
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#2073 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:58 pm

Ramping up at 84 hours:
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Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2074 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:58 pm

The weakening is a mystery too me. The LLC passes further away from Hispaniola on the 18z. Since the euro is also doing this I would really like to know why it weakens. Probably not due to land interaction.
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#2075 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:59 pm

90 hours:

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#2076 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 4:59 pm

I think the GFS might be having resolution problems again. 00z will be very interesting though as NHC mentioned the current mission data will be incorporated into it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2077 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:00 pm

Riptide wrote:The weakening is a mystery too me. The LLC passes further away from Hispaniola on the 18z. Since the euro is also doing this I would really like to know why it weakens. Probably not due to land interaction.


Must be the vertical shear the NHC discussion mentions. This run is significantly weaker so far.
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#2078 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:01 pm

Looks like the NHC track exactly, 96 hours - need to head out. Somebody take over

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Re:

#2079 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:01 pm

Hammy wrote:I think the GFS might be having resolution problems again. 00z will be very interesting though as NHC mentioned the current mission data will be incorporated into it.

What is that mission data going to add into the mix for the 00z
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#2080 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:03 pm

Yeah you'd have to think its shear that is the culprit behind the brief weakening that several of the models are now doing. If they are wrong then we will have a very different looking system to the one that the models suggests, and that close to land in several directions, thats not a good place to be in.
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