ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Hammy
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Re: Re:

#2081 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:05 pm

Kohlecane wrote:
Hammy wrote:I think the GFS might be having resolution problems again. 00z will be very interesting though as NHC mentioned the current mission data will be incorporated into it.

What is that mission data going to add into the mix for the 00z


Better upper air and moisture data. If the upper winds are in fact weakening or even somewhat weaker than estimated, that could make a significant difference. Keep in mind they said that Erika would be dealing with significant shear, not increasing shear.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2082 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:13 pm

I've noticed between 72-108 hrs on the 18Z GFS some slower mvmt
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#2083 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:14 pm

Is the Ridge really weakening or is that just based on a frame?
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2084 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:14 pm

Kohlecane wrote:I've noticed between 72-108 hrs on the 18Z GFS some slower mvmt


It's also about 30 miles east of the 12z so far.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2085 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:15 pm

Hour 102 on GFS...Blowing up over the Gulf Stream...Track looks similar to the HWRF
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#2086 Postby YoshiMike » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:15 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:YoshiMike-love your signature statement. Wish you the best towards a career in weather-just this site itself will help you tremendously towards your goal. :D


Oh well thank you very much.

Yeah. Guess I just gotta keep an eye on it. Even if it is just a wave if it heads my way, (everyone in the discussion page feel like it will not. I'm clueless lol)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2087 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:16 pm

500mb steering shows highs all to the north...Nowhere to go!

SFT
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2088 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:19 pm

Do any of the models take it to NC :flag:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2089 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:21 pm

Well the last few runs are consistent with a coast rider .... I'm up in Jax currently so we shall see.. :lol:
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#2090 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:22 pm

Is there some way to see the surface pressure (vs MSLP) when a storm is close to land? The L and pressure reading usually seems to vanish at that point.
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#2091 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:22 pm

Image

Hugging the coast @ 970mb through 138 hours.
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Re:

#2092 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:23 pm

Hammy wrote:Is there some way to see the surface pressure (vs MSLP) when a storm is close to land? The L and pressure reading usually seems to vanish at that point.


I just compare it with other storms with similar low res pressures (EPAC) since the low res readings always show. Then I just toggle on the high res GFS and see the reading.

Basically look for a storm away from land with similar intensity on the low resoluion GFS, then check the high resolution pressures.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2093 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:24 pm

HWRF 18z is running...
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#2094 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:31 pm

Image

18z GFS 955mb landfall on Georgia.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2095 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:33 pm

Impressive strengthening as it rakes the east coast of Florida and up past Georgia and the Carolinas.

Looks like once past 36hrs conditions are decent for strengthening again and the area quite close to Florida looks pretty primed.
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Re:

#2096 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:33 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image

18z GFS 955mb landfall on Atlanta.


you mean Savannah
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2097 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:33 pm

Atlanta is on the coast? :lol: but I know what you meant....

Gulf Stream will blow up storms as everyone knows some serious warm water on the coast

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2098 Postby emeraldislenc » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:48 pm

Does anyone think it could bend NE and ride up the SC and NC coast?
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Re: Re:

#2099 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:51 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
18z GFS 955mb landfall on Atlanta.


you mean Savannah


Well later in the run, it does take it over Atlanta. That's a setup for flooding all along Florida/Ga/SC with that one (maybe NC/TN also).
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#2100 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:52 pm

Sorry folks. Keep thinking Atlanta is Georgia.
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