ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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JPmia
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2101 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:54 pm

18z HWRF is showing a big smack to her

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=300
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#2102 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:56 pm

HWRF kills it over Hispaniola
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Re:

#2103 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:58 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:HWRF kills it over Hispaniola


nope, it's there, a little north of Eastern Cuba:

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Re: Re:

#2104 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:HWRF kills it over Hispaniola


nope, it's there, a little north of Eastern Cuba:

Image


That's a big mess...I don't see any circulation with that. Let's see what it does in the 72 hour range. I'm guessing she'll pull herself back together and ramp back up.

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2105 Postby JPmia » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:00 pm

Quite a big change for HWRF, but no surprise since Hispainola has done this to many storms over the years.
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#2106 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:03 pm

IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2107 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:04 pm

HWRF's got nothing...Headed towards the FL Straights as nothing more than a afternoon T-Storm.
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#2108 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

:uarrow: Yep HWRF has dropped it basically. From CAT 2/3 to nothing in one run. wow.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2109 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

SeGaBob wrote:IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.


You'd see some rain, but most of the heavier amounts would be right near the track and just east of it.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2110 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

Seems the 18z HWRF kills Erika over the DR. Seems like it's a possibility.
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Re:

#2111 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:05 pm

SeGaBob wrote:IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.


Yeah you would likely get several inches of rain if the 18z GFS verified.
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#2112 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

NAVGEM also came in a lot weaker.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2113 Postby SeGaBob » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

Thanks for the replies Dean4Storms and South Texas Storms. :)
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Re:

#2114 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:07 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Yep HWRF has dropped it basically. From CAT 2/3 to nothing in one run. wow.


That's a big shift but follows suit with the Euro on the west solution. If she clears Hispaniola then it's a different ball game. If she heads west and takes it head on...It might be all over.

SFT
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#2115 Postby YoshiMike » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:08 pm

Still a small chance of a gulf coast hit or is that out now?
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#2116 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:08 pm

I wouldn't bank on the HWRF at this point, it has been all over the place with track and intensity. I'd pay more attention to the ECM and even the GFS Operational and Ensemble Means.
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#2117 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:09 pm

18Z NAVGEM, weak into Southern Florida

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Re:

#2118 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:11 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM, weak into Southern Florida

Image


goes over Hispaniola too, that seems to be coming into the equation
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2119 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:12 pm

We need to wait for the 0z models before we jump on the weak trend. If I had to guess I'd say 50-60kts at Florida landfall. Assuming she doesn't die over Hispaniola first. Just my opinion of course.
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#2120 Postby SunnyThoughts » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:13 pm

I would put a lot more stock into the 0z model outputs, apparently all the data gathered today from the research planes will be included into those. Of course, land interaction is going to mean EVERYTHING as to what she ultimately becomes, as well as the direction she takes afterwards according to the mets here, as well as on tv.



Not a forecast. Please stay tuned to the NHC for official forecast.
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