ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[JPmia]

Yeah.. those air samples are not going to provide much insight into what the mountains will do to her.

[ronjon]

I think NHC will continue to nudge the track slightly westward based on model trends. They might also back the intensity down to TS status only.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think NHC will continue to nudge the track slightly westward based on model trends. They might also back the intensity down to TS status only.

Well, moving the track any further west would put it inland Florida for days 4 and 5, where it's currently forecast to strengthen into a Hurricane. Can't strengthen overland lol.

[SFLcane]

Not buying that HWRF though its very possible.

[SeminoleWind]

Waiting on the Models later tonight with the data from today.but i must say IMO, that if it get over Hispaniola even for a brief time those mountains and any shear will rear it up and we may be looking at messy TW after that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not buying that HWRF though its very possible.

Not really surprising. .GFS really kills it too. Just brings it back to life unlike HWRF did in the 18z.

[northjaxpro]

I think NHC will continue to nudge the track slightly westward based on model trends. They might also back the intensity down to TS status only.

Well, moving the track any further west would put it inland Florida for days 4 and 5, where it's currently forecast to strengthen into a Hurricane. Can't strengthen overland lol.

Well, Tropical Storm Fay did in 2008

[SouthDadeFish]

Not buying that HWRF though its very possible.

Not really surprising. .GFS really kills it too. Just brings it back to life unlike HWRF did in the 18z.

18Z GFS doesn't really bring the low level vort max over Hispaniola though.

[Evil Jeremy]

I think NHC will continue to nudge the track slightly westward based on model trends. They might also back the intensity down to TS status only.

Well, moving the track any further west would put it inland Florida for days 4 and 5, where it's currently forecast to strengthen into a Hurricane. Can't strengthen overland lol.

Well, Tropical Storm Fay did in 2008

Shh... don't let Erika hear you...

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. Well, another night of model watching which I am looking forward to the GFS, HWRF and EURO 0Z runs.

[ronjon]

For what it's worth, 18z NAM brings a tropical storm across the middle keys in 84 hrs.

[robbielyn]

according to accuweather at 4:27pm, the shear over hispaniola is quite strong and will probably do her in. he is more concern with the shear, which he says may retrograde back towards the bahamas, than he is with land interaction. thats how strong it is.
then he says suppose it does leave enough of a remnant to redevelop, come saturday with the the trough in the northern gulf and the ridge in the atlantic, he definitely thinks it's a spine storm hitting miami heading up the spine of fl and could get into the gulf even. sunday the trough retrogrades somewhat. he says florida is the target for sure. but he doesnt think she will survive the shear.

[robbielyn]

I think NHC will continue to nudge the track slightly westward based on model trends. They might also back the intensity down to TS status only.

Well, moving the track any further west would put it inland Florida for days 4 and 5, where it's currently forecast to strengthen into a Hurricane. Can't strengthen overland lol.

Wilma strengthened over land as well.


Well, Tropical Storm Fay did in 2008

[johngaltfla]

I think NHC will continue to nudge the track slightly westward based on model trends. They might also back the intensity down to TS status only.

Can't strengthen overland lol.

You would be shocked how some storms do over South Florida and the Everglades. Ask New Orleans about Katrina.

[northjaxpro]

Yes you are right johngaltfla. I forget Katrina did actually tightened her circulation and got better organized tracking through the Everglades after making landfall in Miami.

[wjs3]

Yes you are right johngaltfla. I forget Katrina did actually tightened her circulation and got better organized tracking through the Everglades after making landfall in Miami.

I just happen to have that snippet from the NHC discussion handy. After this, back to models. I promise. Regarding Katrina...

"DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD PATH TAKEN BY KATRINA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...ITS CENTER SPENT ONLY ABOUT SEVEN HOURS OVER LAND...AND
MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE RELATIVELY MOIST EVERGLADES. AS A RESULT
OF THIS AND THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT... KATRINA DID
NOT WEAKEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AT ABOUT 0530Z... EMERGING OVER THE WARM
WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI AND
KEY WEST STILL DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE... WITH STRONG
CONVECTION CONTINUING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH STILL
QUALIFIES AS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEWALL. A SECONDARY BUT STRONG CURVED
BAND ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF THE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE ENTIRE CHAIN OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND A LARGER OUTER BAND
EXTENDS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION
BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA TO WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS. "

[Ixolib]

You would be shocked how some storms do over South Florida and the Everglades. Ask New Orleans about Katrina.

Or better yet, ask Coastal Mississippi...

[SouthFLTropics]

The GFDL hasn't given up on its steroids...goes bonkers heading through the Bahamas at 72 hours. Stays about 75 to 100 miles off the FL Coast.

[HurricaneFrances04]

The GFDL is trash. Has Erika as a hurricane 6 hours after initialization.

[Steve]

You would be shocked how some storms do over South Florida and the Everglades. Ask New Orleans about Katrina.

Or better yet, ask Coastal Mississippi...

Haha. I'm not buying better yet...