ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

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Hurricaneman
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Re:

#1781 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:28 pm

NDG wrote:I think all the convection that formed to the south of the LLC disrupted the southerly inflow in the LLC thus why all the convection that was trying to wrap around it collapsed, definitely shear still affecting it.


it does look like the convection to the south is working its way the the LLC

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#1782 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:31 pm

Well the nice LLC which convection build by it that we were looking at before the sunset, it aint there no more, according to the recon so far.
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#1783 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:31 pm

I can't see any sort of center on the San Juan radar, it looks like a very broad trough. Makes me wonder if that swirl was indeed just an eddy rotating around the eastern side.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1784 Postby Evenstar » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:33 pm

wjs3 wrote:
Evenstar wrote:Way, way, way too early to tell. It may not even make it that far north if those blocking highs verify.

I was afraid someone would say that. I guess I'm asking a hypothetical question about a hypothetical scenario. After reading the previous sentence, I'm embarrassed about being prematurely parochial and self-serving. :oops:


No judgment on this board for an honest question. It seems to me that it's natural to want to know what might happen to you/your interests. Stay vigilant and you'll be fine.


Many thanks! :)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1785 Postby SapphireSea » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:35 pm

I'll go on a limb and say that this has been for a while been open at the surface. The various center readings relocating everywhere should be evidence of that. I believe alot of the rotation on radar is closer to mesoscale than a true surface LLC. I still believe that the shear is just too much for any consolidation to occur; I would believe that DMAX may help tonight with convection, but Im not sold on an LLC developing. This is why its still riding with low level steering. (W-WNW). It wont escape Hispanola/DR.
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Re:

#1786 Postby wjs3 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:39 pm

NDG wrote:Well the nice LLC which convection build by it that we were looking at before the sunset, it aint there no more, according to the recon so far.


And high pressures where the alleged center was and light winds. Yuck. Well, a number of models progged this to open into a wave. i guess ifit has--and that's not clear yet--I'm kind of surprised it would happen in the face of a big convective blow up with what looked like nice outflow developing.

i guess we'll see what else the plane brings. Maybe something is brewing where we can't see it under the convection?? Wold be odd given wind direction where the plane is, but...???

EDIT Just like that the next set shows it was sort of an elongated center after all. West winds.

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Last edited by wjs3 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1787 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:39 pm

Interesting that the latest HWRF does not strengthens Erika much if any on its latest run.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1788 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:41 pm

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Re:

#1789 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:42 pm

NDG wrote:Well the nice LLC which convection build by it that we were looking at before the sunset, it aint there no more, according to the recon so far.


DMIN right on schedule
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1790 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:43 pm

SapphireSea wrote:I'll go on a limb and say that this has been for a while been open at the surface. The various center readings relocating everywhere should be evidence of that. I believe alot of the rotation on radar is closer to mesoscale than a true surface LLC. I still believe that the shear is just too much for any consolidation to occur; I would believe that DMAX may help tonight with convection, but Im not sold on an LLC developing. This is why its still riding with low level steering. (W-WNW). It wont escape Hispanola/DR.


It has not opened up because recon still finds west winds, maybe just a broad closed circulation more likely at the moment.
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Re:

#1791 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:44 pm

NDG wrote:Interesting that the latest HWRF does not strengthens Erika much if any on its latest run.


Yeah that's because the storm really gets roughed up by the mountains of Hispaniola on this run. I bet it would ramp it up if it didn't track over the high terrain.
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#1792 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:47 pm

It is now impossible for Erika to miss running over the Dominican Republic without a major increase in organization to pull it north. There's been no latitude gain whatsoever and if anything is further south in latitude than earlier. I personally think this will die over Hispaniola either tomorrow or the day after and that the models may have possibly severely overblown this (though I would not make any preparedness decisions based on my opinion here.)

Erika is so disorganized that we get tracking eddies, it looks organized, and then the recon arrives to show that it's just holding steady as it's done the last three days.
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Re:

#1793 Postby ozonepete » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:56 pm

Hammy wrote:It is now impossible for Erika to miss running over the Dominican Republic without a major increase in organization to pull it north. There's been no latitude gain whatsoever and if anything is further south in latitude than earlier. I personally think this will die over Hispaniola either tomorrow or the day after and that the models may have possibly severely overblown this (though I would not make any preparedness decisions based on my opinion here.)

Erika is so disorganized that we get tracking eddies, it looks organized, and then the recon arrives to show that it's just holding steady as it's done the last three days.


Hammy, really? After al the crazy storms we've followed and how good you have gotten at analyzing them you are convinced this will go directly over DR and die there? Minimally you need a lot more model support to be confident of that, right? At least wait for the 00Z runs and what Erika does at DMAX, ok?
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Re:

#1794 Postby Blizzard96x » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:56 pm

Hammy wrote:It is now impossible for Erika to miss running over the Dominican Republic without a major increase in organization to pull it north. There's been no latitude gain whatsoever and if anything is further south in latitude than earlier. I personally think this will die over Hispaniola either tomorrow or the day after and that the models may have possibly severely overblown this (though I would not make any preparedness decisions based on my opinion here.)

Erika is so disorganized that we get tracking eddies, it looks organized, and then the recon arrives to show that it's just holding steady as it's done the last three days.


Would be one of the biggest fails by the models in history if 18z HWRF verifies.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1795 Postby CW0262 » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:57 pm

...Erika soaking portions of the Leeward Islands...
Summary of 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.7n 64.7w
about 145 mi...235 km se of San Juan Puerto Rico
maximum sustained winds...45 mph...75 km/h
present movement...W or 280 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h
minimum central pressure...1008 mb...29.77 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:
The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
a tropical storm watch for the central Bahamas.
The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a tropical
storm watch for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from west
of Isla Saona to Punta Palenque.
The meteorological service of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat.
The meteorological service of Curacao has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The meteorological service of St. Maarten has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maarten.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* central Bahamas
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and in Haiti should
monitor the progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your National
meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 PM AST (0000 utc), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 north, longitude 64.7 west. Erika has
slowed down a little and is now moving westward near 12 mph (19
km/h). Erika should resume a west-northwest track with a slight
increase in forward speed later tonight. This general motion is
expected to continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track,
the center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands this evening,
move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the
Dominican Republic on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: tropical storm conditions should reach the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tonight, and these conditions should spread westward
across portions of the Dominican Republic on Friday, and the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands late Friday.
Rainfall: Erika is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches possible across
portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas through Saturday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1796 Postby WYNweather » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:58 pm

Loking out back boat is higher then normal. Full moon. Monday high tide in pompano beach is 9.25 am should be interesting. If we have onshore wind event. Water was over seawall when sandy went by.
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Re: Re:

#1797 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:58 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:It is now impossible for Erika to miss running over the Dominican Republic without a major increase in organization to pull it north. There's been no latitude gain whatsoever and if anything is further south in latitude than earlier. I personally think this will die over Hispaniola either tomorrow or the day after and that the models may have possibly severely overblown this (though I would not make any preparedness decisions based on my opinion here.)

Erika is so disorganized that we get tracking eddies, it looks organized, and then the recon arrives to show that it's just holding steady as it's done the last three days.


Hammy, really? After al the crazy storms we've followed and how good you have gotten at analyzing them you are convinced this will go directly over DR and die there? Minimally you need a lot more model support to be confident of that, right? At least wait for the 00Z runs and what Erika does at DMAX, ok?


Thank you Pete. I've been following this site for years now and the one thing I'm certain of is the uncertainty. Until this storm passes directly over the mountains, I am not going to rest easy and no one from Pensacola to Jacksonville in Florida should either.
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Re: Re:

#1798 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Hammy wrote:It is now impossible for Erika to miss running over the Dominican Republic without a major increase in organization to pull it north. There's been no latitude gain whatsoever and if anything is further south in latitude than earlier. I personally think this will die over Hispaniola either tomorrow or the day after and that the models may have possibly severely overblown this (though I would not make any preparedness decisions based on my opinion here.)

Erika is so disorganized that we get tracking eddies, it looks organized, and then the recon arrives to show that it's just holding steady as it's done the last three days.


Hammy, really? After al the crazy storms we've followed and how good you have gotten at analyzing them you are convinced this will go directly over DR and die there? Minimally you need a lot more model support to be confident of that, right? At least wait for the 00Z runs and what Erika does at DMAX, ok?


I have no doubts the convection will refire, but this is running out of time to make the north turn that would miss Hispaniola's mountains, and we've seen night after night that the nightly convective building doesn't seem to be doing anything for the organization. This likely has about 12 hours or so to start making a more northward turn to miss DR. (And remember back in July the model support for the East Coast storm that never was, so my confidence in the models has been rather low since then anyway.)
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1799 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:01 pm

Updated with 8PM position.

Image
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Re:

#1800 Postby robbielyn » Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:02 pm

spiral wrote:Image


Image

Thinking it will be moving away from the 20knt shear overhead soon then i expect to seen first visuals on satpics with a eye like feature to appear on infrared.

have you seen the shear over hispaniola? and itson the increase.
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