ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[jonj2040]

Hi guys I've had an account for a while but I more of an observer. Anyway I was just wondering if minor land interactions might help tighten the circulation due to the land friction with a less developed system such as Erika.

Thank you for the input and as always this is not a professional opinion or idea and should not be taken as such.

[Hammy]

Erika back within 20-30kt shear range

[Weatherlover12]

Ok. So if Erika dies over DR couldn't it develop in the Bahamas like Katrina did in 2005?
I'm so confused about this storm haha... Does it still have a center at least?
I'm not stressed out anymore.. I'm waiting for Friday to see what may or may not happen or affect us.

[HurriGuy]

Wind shear only gets worse the further west it goes. That with the mountain interaction makes me think it is impossible for this storm to survive. It would be an incredible feat if it does.

Or it just starts turning more north to save itself

[tolakram]

Someone needs to turn the dial back to neutral. Every evening we have 50 posts killing off Erika.

Islanders, stay safe, Erika is hanging around way too long, too much rain!

[northjaxpro]

Keep in mind Hammy what we are seeing with the condition of Erika was expected and forecast rather accurately. Shear was and has kept Erika in check for the past 3 days. Now, I agree, at the 285 degree header she is moving currently, the cyclone will have interaction with Hispaniola tomorrow. Erika is disorganized, but one thing she has going to help is a very decent moisture inflow, and she has grown a bit in size imo since yesterday. The interaction likely with Hispaniola may bring Erika to an open wave by the time the emerges off that island. But, my gut feeling is telling me Erika will survive these next 24 hours. I checked the 500 mb upper air analysis and also the shear forecasts and I feel Erika will have ample time to recover and spin-up as conditions past 70 degrees longitude look pretty darn good with relative light shear conducive for development going into the weekend. Plus, I can't stress this enough, Erika will have sea surface temperatures toasty warm to feed from, and that is what is worrisome to me going forward. That region in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits has been so untapped by lack of inactivity of storms in that it would be like lighting dynamite potentially and watch it explode. If Erika is around intact by this time tomorrow night, you bet I am really going to be glued to buoy reports, ship reports and of Recon at every opportunity to see if Erika can ramp up. That is the HUGE question going forth other than the interaction with Hispaniola during the next 24 hours.

[blp]

I can't believe it is still moving west. I cannot see how this misses Hispaniola.

Another thought, maybe the best thing is for that mid level circulation to die out over Hispaniola and thus allow the low level center to tighten as it skirts the coast and concentrate the energy over the low level circulation.

[tolakram]

Wind shear only gets worse the further west it goes. That with the mountain interaction makes me think it is impossible for this storm to survive. It would be an incredible feat if it does.

Or it just starts turning more north to save itself

Why do you say this? Wind shear is not static, it varies hour to hour, day to day.

[NDG]

Erika back within 20-30kt shear range
http://i.imgur.com/90bwm2m.png

Near 20 knots, not even close to 30 knots of shear.

[Hammy]

Recon finding pretty good flight level winds but barely TS at the surface.

Near 20 knots, not even close to 30 knots of shear.

I meant it was within that, given that the map goes in 10kt increments.

[tolakram]

I really think Erica is north of the NHC positions, but I've been wrong here before.

CIMSS plot

[Bocadude85]

I see a TS watch has been issued for the central Bahamas. Assuming this survives the shear and land interaction, watches for Florida would be likely at 5pm or 11pm tomorrow? Or later?

[Nederlander]

Hi guys I've had an account for a while but I more of an observer. Anyway I was just wondering if minor land interactions might help tighten the circulation due to the land friction with a less developed system such as Erika.

Thank you for the input and as always this is not a professional opinion or idea and should not be taken as such.

Yes, in short. A weaker Erika has a better chance to survive land interaction than with a well developed core. The caveat is that Hispaniola has very tall mountains (10,000+ feet) which would do significant damage to any system that crosses over it. But a skirt along the coast could certainly prevent that and could even help tighten her up.

[tolakram]

Nope, I'm wrong, this is exactly where recon found the center.

8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 27
Location: 16.7°N 64.7°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[Bocadude85]

What is the feature that is about to move over St.Croix? You can see it on San Juan radar.

[northjaxpro]

Another thing I am beginning to notice is Erika is gradually slowing down. Earlier today, she was moving at about 17 mph to the west. Now, she is at 12 mph according to the 8 a.m. advisory.

[gatorcane]

To me Erika looks to be gaining some latitude. May just clip Hispaniola but not convinced she will go right through the island and just die.

[Evil Jeremy]

I see a TS watch has been issued for the central Bahamas. Assuming this survives the shear and land interaction, watches for Florida would be likely at 5pm or 11pm tomorrow? Or later?

Assuming Tropical Storm force winds would reach the SE FL coast Sunday evening, than tomorrow, 5pm likely TS Watches will be issued. I say 5 instead of 11 because it gives people Friday evening to prepare.

[wjs3]

I see a TS watch has been issued for the central Bahamas. Assuming this survives the shear and land interaction, watches for Florida would be likely at 5pm or 11pm tomorrow? Or later?

My guess would be 5 PM Friday. Lots of "ifs" between now and then, though.




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[SeaBrz_FL]

It is now impossible for Erika to miss running over the Dominican Republic without a major increase in organization to pull it north. There's been no latitude gain whatsoever and if anything is further south in latitude than earlier. I personally think this will die over Hispaniola either tomorrow or the day after and that the models may have possibly severely overblown this (though I would not make any preparedness decisions based on my opinion here.)
Erika is so disorganized that we get tracking eddies, it looks organized, and then the recon arrives to show that it's just holding steady as it's done the last three days.

Would be one of the biggest fails by the models in history if 18z HWRF verifies.

Agree with you, Blizzard. I will delete my forecast sites and go back to watching for crabs to cross the highway.