ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[wjs3]

What is the feature that is about to move over St.Croix? You can see it on San Juan radar.

Just looks like a squall to me. I'm watching the St Croix METARs to see just how nasty it is. Showing 23 gusting to 34, so getting a bit gnarly.

TISX 2800:15 Z 130°23G34KT 7SM BKN010 OVC016 27/25 A2981=

EDIT they added a remark 37 kt wind.

PK WND 07037/2355 WSHFT 2355 RAE05 PRESRR P0000 T02670250=




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Erika back within 20-30kt shear range
http://i.imgur.com/90bwm2m.png

Near 20 knots, not even close to 30 knots of shear.

Correct. You have to look more carefully at that chart. I could see low 20s knots, maybe, but not more than that.

[caneman]

Wind shear only gets worse the further west it goes. That with the mountain interaction makes me think it is impossible for this storm to survive. It would be an incredible feat if it does.

Or it just starts turning more north to save itself

Why do you say this? Wind shear is not static, it varies hour to hour, day to day.

according to accuweather it's shear near dominican and not the.mountains that he says will do it in. Well see.

[HurriGuy]

The red arrows represent the cutoff low responsible for the shear over Hispaniola. It can clearly be seen spinning on the water vapor loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

The ridge can also be seen on the water loop (blue arrows), and you can tell it is not budging causing Erika to remain more on the south side of the cone. If you watch the trough over the Gulf (yellow circle) and the ridge, it is not allowing that cutoff low to move.



Notice on the latest GFS that the trough is still in an unfavorable location out to Saturday 00z. Thats why I believe the shear will continue to persist over Hispaniola.

The trough is the key. It needs to start backing away so the cutoff low can continue to the west reducing the shear and the ridge can allow Erika to gain some latitude.

[northjaxpro]

San Juan radar shows what appears to be Erika's LLC passing near or about to clear passing Saint Croix, with a heavy convective feederband on the eastern side of the circulation moving over that island currently.

[robbielyn]

the trough backs away on sunday.

[FireRat]

IMO Tonight will be very important, as we head for the Dmax and may very well see stronger convection fire, possibly allowing those stronger winds aloft mix down closer to the surface, thus providing Erika with a little strengthening boost prior to her interaction with Hispaniola. Lets see what we wake with tomorrow!

These posts are my opinion only, refer to the NHC for official forecasts!

[HurriGuy]

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/JUA_loop.gif


San Juan radar shows what appears to be Erika's LLC passing near or about to clear passing Saint Croix, with a heavy convective feederband on the eastern side of the circulation moving over that island currently.

That would not make any sense according to what recon is finding.

[stormlover2013]

If that trough wasn't there that would be bad news for la/Texas

[ScottNAtlanta]

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/JUA_loop.gif


San Juan radar shows what appears to be Erika's LLC passing near or about to clear passing Saint Croix, with a heavy convective feederband on the eastern side of the circulation moving over that island currently.

That looks like where the LLC was we were looking at earlier

[HurriGuy]

But Erika will be near Hispaniola by Friday. So the shear will continue to persist.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/235640.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

[robbielyn]

two days late to the rescue. let it stay weak and give some beneficial rains to s florida.

[northjaxpro]

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0Z/JUA_loop.gif


San Juan radar shows what appears to be Erika's LLC passing near or about to clear passing Saint Croix, with a heavy convective feederband on the eastern side of the circulation moving over that island currently.

That looks like where the LLC was we were looking at earlier

Well, as far as I know, the radar image is current, at least I thought it was when I posted it.

[HurriGuy]

If you want to go off radar, here is where the llc would be. Would not make sense for that to be the llc so this further justifies what I though earlier that perhaps that was an eddy of some sort we saw on visible.

[wxsouth]

Radar plus squirrely looking data from recon suggest a broad sfc center near (or just west) of the aircraft fix. However, there are multiple vort maxes rotating around the broad center (i.e. the feature near St. Croix and the odd wind feature on the northbound leg of the recon. Messy disorganized system. Key to the whole forecast is the interaction with Hispaniola.

[CrazyC83]

The flight level winds were almost 60 knots, suggesting a strong circulation aloft, but the SFMR only supports 40 kt and the pressure is very high.

[Steve H.]

I still don't think she will go over Hispaniola, but ride north along the coast. Everyone keeps focusing on the convection, not the llc.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[seatrump]

Saint Martin airport has been reporting wind gusts in the 40+ mph range most of the day including one report of 45kts (50mph). Currently they are reporting sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts into the low-mid 40s.

San Juan int'l has a forecast for the overnight period of sustained winds of 40mph with gusts to 56mph. Winds are fairly light there at the moment. Aguadillas aviation forecast is also calling for gusts to 50mph in the early morning hours. So the system is expected to bring some brisk breezes with it. Nothing that should cause much in the way of damage however.

Here in Providenciales it is a beautiful evening with nearly calm winds. The cancelled the Fish Fry this evening but otherwise all is well. My preparations are complete.

[northjaxpro]

The flight level winds were almost 60 knots, suggesting a strong circulation aloft, but the SFMR only supports 40 kt and the pressure is very high.

that's interesting. DMAX is going to be a very critical factor tonight. A good convective burst can possibly mix down those strongers winds, which could help the storm maintain with regards to the upcoming battle with Hispaniola in the next 24 hours.

[Weatherboy1]

My best semi educated guess is that Erika misses Hispanola to the north, and that the cut off low will not impart as much shear on her. This is not a brutal, TUTT-like shear feature, after all. Recent trends are not hugely impressive but come tomorrow night, I think it's going to be a whole new ballgame. We shall see.

Semi educated amateur; listen tot he experts as always!