ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Finally caught up, tried to read the last 50 pages to see really what the trends are.

Seems the models are converging, consistently trending west if anything. Could drift back the same amount east and miss the coast, or is that window closing -- how many more runs before a big change is really unlikely?

If the track as now starts to look certain, watch out. Intensity is so much harder to peg. Preparing for a major is not dumb when a tropical storm is going through the Bahamas toward Florida.

Sept. 2, 1935. Just mentioning it.

Evening Recurve been a while funny you should mention that storm with the pic u use on here. Don't see it getting any where near that strong, but do agree no reason this cannot get stronger than the models show.

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[Evil Jeremy]

Remember that the 00Z suite of models, particularly the GFS, should have the G-IV drops in the runs.

When does the 00z models come out?

GFS starts in just over an hour. See my signature for more.

[SouthDadeFish]

Remember that the 00Z suite of models, particularly the GFS, should have the G-IV drops in the runs.

So that means the 00Z NAM running now should right?

To be quite honest I'm not familiar with the NAM's data initialization... Plus, it's the NAM!

[AutoPenalti]

Remember that the 00Z suite of models, particularly the GFS, should have the G-IV drops in the runs.

When does the 00z models come out?

GFS starts in just over an hour. See my signature for more.

O.T. But can I use your sig to post on mine for future reference?

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance a clustering just barely east of Florida but the ECMWF track (not shown) is further west along with some other models:

[LarryWx]

IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.

The 18Z GFS actually gives Statesboro ~5" of rain. So, a big event rainfallwise with potential flooding even as far inland as your area if we took the 18Z GFS literally.

[got ants?]

Hey STORM2K, another year, and here we are again...

Why does it appear to me that all the models currently show Erika tracking into PR, if not on the northern side, but to me, it appears she is heading either directly into PR, and even on the south side?

What also appears to me is her track is going further and further south? Can she she slide under PR, and even under Hispaniola?

Does it seem like it now?

[SeGaBob]

IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.

The 18Z GFS actually gives Statesboro ~5" of rain. So, a big event rainfallwise with potential flooding even as far inland as your area if we took the 18Z GFS literally.

Thanks LarryWx, what part of Ga are you in if you don't mind me asking?

[Hammy]

To be quite honest I'm not familiar with the NAM's data initialization... Plus, it's the NAM!

NAM performed quite well (better than the global models even) with Ana Bill and Claudette (and was in fact the only one to develop Claudette prior to the low even forming) so it'll certainly have my attention.

[LarryWx]

IF by some chance the 18z GFS verified would I get a good rain here? I'm about 60 miles or so inland from the GA coast.

The 18Z GFS actually gives Statesboro ~5" of rain. So, a big event rainfallwise with potential flooding even as far inland as your area if we took the 18Z GFS literally.

Thanks LarryWx, what part of Ga are you in if you don't mind me asking?

Bob,
You're welcome. I'm today in the ATL area but I do also have a place in SAV. I go back and forth.

[tgenius]

The 00Z GFS run will be mighty interesting especially considering not even NHC can give a concrete answer to where the center is!

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS is off and running...Here we go!!!

[AutoPenalti]

00z GFS is off and running...Here we go!!!

Link pls?

[SouthFLTropics]

[SouthFLTropics]

[Hammy]

I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to lose it over Hispaniola

[SouthFLTropics]

Actually vort is still showing up in Mona passage at 12 hours

[ninel conde]

I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.

Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking to try and get going on the north coast of Hispaniola