ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[fci]

Good news about the NHC saying that the center is hard to locate and that they are going with the mean center of location is that all of the people guessing in their posts can say that are all correct. THEY NAILED IT!!!

[invest man]

Good news about the NHC saying that the center is hard to locate and that they are going with the mean center of location is that all of the people guessing in their posts can say that are all correct. THEY NAILED IT!!!

My guess is 17.3N & 65W moving wnw. IM

[Hurricaneman]

Good news about the NHC saying that the center is hard to locate and that they are going with the mean center of location is that all of the people guessing in their posts can say that are all correct. THEY NAILED IT!!!

My guess is 17.3N & 65W moving wnw. IM

I say more like 65.5W but under that northern blowup of convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

Looks like a disorganized rainmaker. JB has toned down alot on it.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Don't see any west winds with latest recon pass or ASCAT. East Caribbean claims another one?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

looking at the broad picture, I don't see how this turns NW over the next 6- 12 hours.
I hope DR and Haiti are getting ready.

[HurriGuy]

Don't see any west winds with latest recon pass or ASCAT. East Caribbean claims another one?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see west winds on recon and ASCAT.

They are very weak.

[ninel conde]

Don't see any west winds with latest recon pass or ASCAT. East Caribbean claims another one?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When they say they are having a hard time finding a center it usually means there isnt one. Probably a wave. if it were 200 miles further north it might be able to recover.

[ROCK]

Don't see any west winds with latest recon pass or ASCAT. East Caribbean claims another one?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When they say they are having a hard time finding a center it usually means there isnt one. Probably a wave. if it were 200 miles further north it might be able to recover.

they have west winds per recon albeit weak.....personally I think we have 2 centers trying to dominate. One we know is nearing PR and the other to the south.

[HurriGuy]

Don't see any west winds with latest recon pass or ASCAT. East Caribbean claims another one?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

When they say they are having a hard time finding a center it usually means there isnt one. Probably a wave. if it were 200 miles further north it might be able to recover.

they have west winds per recon albeit weak.....personally I think we have 2 centers trying to dominate. One we know is nearing PR and the other to the south.

agreed!

[HurriGuy]

When is the next recon flight?

[Siker]

Looks like a disorganized rainmaker. JB has toned down alot on it.

JB literally said in one of his posts today "my forecast remains the same."

[toad strangler]

Look at how large the reach of this mess is. HUGE all around. Still, Hispaniola can and will kill it if the track is right.
I mean South America to the latitude of northern Cuba

[SeaBrz_FL]

Sorry, I know a lot of people have suffered already from this storm. Didn't mean to compare a fence to a life. I have to think about things beyond my own backyard!

Steve - Don't apologize, that is one of the kindest sentiments I've read today.

To everyone else - we all love the adrenaline rush these storms give us tracking, debating, and even arguing, but there are usually real people affected. RIGHT NOW there are people mourning and searching for loved ones, people struggling to secure their homes, and people (like me) trying to prepare for the next few days. I have an aunt (79) in N FLL, an aunt (84) at John Knox in Pompano, and my Dad (82) in St Augustine, my daughter/husband/grandson and my brother in coastal Brevard. I absolutely agree that this has been one of the craziest (and fun) storms to follow, but I MUST trust the NHC track right now and plan accordingly.

Please continue the debating, arguing, challenges, etc., because this board would not be the same without that. But I hope you can also remember compassion.

(As for you SFL frat boys -- we ARE all one state called FLORIDA. Get over yourselves. I was born in Miami so get to say this.)

[HurriGuy]

GFS way further to the west

[ninel conde]

JB now giving out reasons it wont develop.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago State College, PA

Strong low level easterlies under Erika in Caribbean, even after she leaves Hispaniola, a negative for development

[SFLcane]

JB now giving out reasons it wont develop.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago State College, PA

Strong low level easterlies under Erika in Caribbean, even after she leaves Hispaniola, a negative for development

Just tweeting about latest GFS run..

[tropicwatch]

Noticed HH were finding ts force winds close to Puerto Rico on the way home.

[ROCK]

have to agree with JB on that. I mentioned the easterlies like 20 pages ago. The LLC was outrunning its MLC on a few occasions. I will say that I think we have competing centers attm. One about to move under PR and the other south. JMO though.

remember the days of Dean, Felix, Ike, Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Francis, Charley. they all had profound centers and an eye to track. Seems after 2008 all we get is these weak sloppy TS's...so frustrating.

[Hurricaneman]

There's a center in the highest tops of the northern convection lets hope it doesn't outrun the convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products