ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#2181 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:44 pm

:uarrow: Talk about splitting the difference. The vort right through the Mona passage, and then skirts the north coast of the DR on that run. It is going to be a close call during the day tomorrow
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

Re: Re:

#2182 Postby SeminoleWind » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.



Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.



Kind of a bold statement given the pros don't see it that way
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#2183 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Talk about splitting the difference. The vort right through the Mona passage. It is going to be a close call during the day tomorrow.



I wonder how many TS have actually made it thru the mona passage...I mean the odds seem astronomical... :D
0 likes   

User avatar
WPBWeather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 535
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm

Re: Re:

#2184 Postby WPBWeather » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:45 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.



Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.


Nope. I think you both are wrong.
0 likes   

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

#2185 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:46 pm

Image

Hour 30
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#2186 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:47 pm

The 0Z GFS is quite a bit further west than the 18Z GFS. This looks like it is heading for the FL pen or maybe even the eastern GOM. Weaker for sure at this point.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

#2187 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:48 pm

North of Cuba...Weak at hour 42

Image
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

#2188 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:48 pm

Evening northJaxrpo,

I think we are just about to that point we were talking about the other night. Does it find better conditions and start getting stronger as it heads towards S. FLA, or keep struggling.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#2189 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:49 pm

:uarrow: Looks as if Erika will survive according to this run. Also, look at the ridge expanding, with the western edge of the ridge extending out into the Eastern GOM 0Z GFS @ 30 hr.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

#2190 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:50 pm

The 0Z GFS is about 150 miles west of the 18Z GFS.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

#2191 Postby SeminoleWind » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:50 pm

when (what area) is Erika supposed to reach less shear?
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re:

#2192 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:50 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 0Z GFS is quite a bit further west than the 18Z GFS. This looks like it is heading for the FL pen or maybe even the eastern GOM. Weaker for sure at this point.


Out through 60 hours and is nothing but a wave and further west.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Re:

#2193 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:51 pm

ninel conde wrote:
Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.



Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.


This is not a wave considering they found west winds. (And I can't help but notice you didn't show up at all when it looked like might be organizing :P )
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2194 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:53 pm

any chance this misses us to the west?
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re:

#2195 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:53 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Evening northJaxrpo,

I think we are just about to that point we were talking about the other night. Does it find better conditions and start getting stronger as it heads towards S. FLA, or keep struggling.


Well, we will get our answer during the next 24 hours Miami. If Erika survives through this time and makes it past 70 degrees Longitude and emerge away from Hispaniola, all bets are off with the potential she has to intensity after 48 hours from now. Conditions look very good for development, especially in the Bahamas and the Florida Straits region where shear looks very light. Worried that Erika could ramp up provided she stays intact after these next 24 hours.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#2196 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:54 pm

72 hours weak and into Florida Keys. GFS has dropped a cyclone into SE Florida on this run.
0 likes   

ninel conde

Re: Re:

#2197 Postby ninel conde » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:54 pm

Hammy wrote:
ninel conde wrote:
Hammy wrote:I'm going to guess low-end TS or TD into S Florida and then Gulf with this run.



Might be too strong. Think its a wave now and will move west and dissipate.


This is not a wave considering they found west winds. (And I can't help but notice you didn't show up at all when it looked like might be organizing :P )



I never show up until something can make it intact past 60 west. This one never did. GFS this run isnt showing anything more than rain from a wave.
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6305
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2198 Postby LarryWx » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:54 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:any chance this misses us to the west?


On this 0Z run, that is happening. Hitting S FL west of Miami. Very weak as modeled. About two degrees longitude further west than 18Z.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4236
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

#2199 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:55 pm

Image

Vort headed NW at 66 hours...Looks weak
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24

User avatar
Miami Storm Tracker
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 910
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
Location: Key Largo, Fla.
Contact:

Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2200 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Aug 27, 2015 10:56 pm

agree with you as I always have, but must admit I never really felt the models would keep moving it west. It seemed last night and earlier runs today for the most part have it near Miami to Palm Beach.
0 likes   


Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests