ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[gatorcane]

If the Euro drops the cyclone into SE Florida also, might be a big trend.

Models seem to be trending weaker with each new cycle

[Hammy]

I never show up until something can make it intact past 60 west. This one never did. GFS this run isnt showing anything more than rain from a wave.

You seem to show up most if things are weakening or not happening though.

GFS run seems to be stalling or moving extremely slowly over the Keys or Everglades this run...

[N2FSU]

GFS +84hr

[boca]

Did they use the data from today in this run?

[tgenius]

This run does have the GIV data. I'm hoping I wake up tomorrow morning and this thing has dissipated.

[SouthFLTropics]

If the Euro drops the cyclone into SE Florida also, might be a big trend

12z Euro, 18z HWRF, now 00z GFS with the G-IV data. I think we are already into a trend. If Erika manages to somehow reform north of Hispaniola intact though...all bets might be off.

[Bocadude85]

Vort into Miami in 72 hours

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks to be a drought buster for South Florida

[ninel conde]

I never show up until something can make it intact past 60 west. This one never did. GFS this run isnt showing anything more than rain from a wave.

You seem to show up most if things are weakening or not happening though.

GFS run seems to be stalling or moving extremely slowly over the Keys or Everglades this run...

Personally, this one is so weak i think conditions will never become good for development now. If it had followed andrews path further north then it might have exploded. I read how ne of PR the NHC was also having a hard time finding andrews center but andrew didnt have to deal with mountainous land.

[Hammy]

Personally, this one is so weak i think conditions will never become good for development now. If it had followed andrews path further north then it might have exploded. I read how ne of PR the NHC was also having a hard time finding andrews center but andrew didnt have to deal with mountainous land.

I have no doubt about it finding better conditions, it's more a question of what will be left of it by then.

[Ntxw]

I think the steering is fairly evident and easy to pick out the past few days, devil in the details. The caveat all along has been intensity, strong model runs have been further east, weaker runs much west, and the more direct impacts to SFL has been somewhere in between.

[ROCK]

these models are all over the place...not one has latched on and stayed the course....maybe the CMC by luck alone...

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=312

From Homestead to okechobee..Weak Spine rider.

[SouthFLTropics]

these models are all over the place...not one has latched on and stayed the course....maybe the CMC by luck alone...

When recon can't even find a good center to fix on then I'm sure the models are having a hard time as well...Garbage in, garbage out...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well I really thought this run would clarify a lot of things, but so far not really. Yes still shows it between the Keys and S.FLA. But again will it fall apart stay weak, get stronger and still we do not know.

[toad strangler]

[N2FSU]

GFS +120hr

Not moving much.

[LarryWx]

So, the 0Z GFS is much weaker and up the west coast of FL vs. the 18Z's just off the E coast...about 150 miles shift west. Will future runs have it further west into the E Gulf (assuming survival) as a better reflection of current reality is taken into account? Any guesses?

[SouthFLTropics]

Vort over Lake Okeechobee at hour 96 but nothing showing up on the surface. Looks like its toast at that point.

[boca]

Looks like a drought buster for the east coast