ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

JB now giving out reasons it wont develop.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4m4 minutes ago State College, PA

Strong low level easterlies under Erika in Caribbean, even after she leaves Hispaniola, a negative for development

Just tweeting about latest GFS run..

I understand we are not to bash professionals, but that sounds like crock. Strong easterlies in the low levels mean nothing to a storm for development; Aside the fact that mid-levels may not be as strong (shear), and that may not be the case. Land interaction, and the fact that this for the last day or so has been a sharp trough scientifically is what is preventing a blow up. However, this needs to be looked at closely regardless. I see higher layer steering reasoning is consistent. If Erika bombs out, she will turn on a dime to the north; Timing and speed is everything, look for a stall and more uncertainty.

[Ntxw]

have to agree with JB on that. I mentioned the easterlies like 20 pages ago. The LLC was outrunning its MLC on a few occasions. I will say that I think we have competing centers attm. One about to move under PR and the other south. JMO though.

remember the days of Dean, Felix, Ike, Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Francis, Charley. they all had profound centers and an eye to track. Seems after 2008 all we get is these weak sloppy TS's...so frustrating.

Danny had a tenacious center, was a major.

[Evil Jeremy]

Once again, people are writing off Erika tonight. Multiple centers, or maybe none at all. Models not showing strengthening. Recon can't find anything.

Calm down. Deep breath.

Lets see what is happening in the morning. Some of us have spent the past 18 hours looking at Erika, lets get some rest and do it all again tomorrow.

Right now, the concern is heavy rain in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Whatever happens over the next day or so, Erika will still have plenty of time in great conditions to rejuvenate in the Bahamas. If she gets to that point and cant refuel, then it's safe to write her off.

[Hurricaneman]

have to agree with JB on that. I mentioned the easterlies like 20 pages ago. The LLC was outrunning its MLC on a few occasions. I will say that I think we have competing centers attm. One about to move under PR and the other south. JMO though.

remember the days of Dean, Felix, Ike, Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Francis, Charley. they all had profound centers and an eye to track. Seems after 2008 all we get is these weak sloppy TS's...so frustrating.

more like SE but I agree with what you're saying

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

strong easterlies very typical of the east carib. It needed to follow andrews path to be a possible US threat.

[ROCK]

have to agree with JB on that. I mentioned the easterlies like 20 pages ago. The LLC was outrunning its MLC on a few occasions. I will say that I think we have competing centers attm. One about to move under PR and the other south. JMO though.

remember the days of Dean, Felix, Ike, Wilma, Rita, Katrina, Francis, Charley. they all had profound centers and an eye to track. Seems after 2008 all we get is these weak sloppy TS's...so frustrating.

Danny had a tenacious center, was a major.

yeah for what a day? You know what I mean....

[Ntxw]

yeah for what a day? You know what I mean....

I know, I was promoting your advertisement on vigorous centers

[ninel conde]

Once again, people are writing off Erika tonight. Multiple centers, or maybe none at all. Models not showing strengthening. Recon can't find anything.

Calm down. Deep breath.

Lets see what is happening in the morning. Some of us have spent the past 18 hours looking at Erika, lets get some rest and do it all again tomorrow.

Right now, the concern is heavy rain in Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

Whatever happens over the next day or so, Erika will still have plenty of time in great conditions to rejuvenate in the Bahamas. If she gets to that point and cant refuel, then it's safe to write her off.

not sure conditions will be all that great. they might be if erica was 100 miles further north with a well defined center. with a wave moving over mountains i feel confident conditions wont be nearly as favorable as earlier expected.

[SouthFloridawx]

JB's always right of course.

[GeneratorPower]

My two cents, as an interested amateur, recorded for historical purposes.

This storm has all the hallmarks of a dangerous, surprise-type disaster waiting to happen. The storm is difficult to forecast. There is a giant convective ball literally in the center of the Caribbean Sea while the LLC supposedly is near Puerto Rico. That's hundreds of miles difference. There are arguments over multiple centers in multiple levels. The NHC goes out of its way to highlight the uncertainty, which is greater than normal. Summary: we don't know where it's going nor how strong.

Then, there's the wild card. The warm water and forecasted good conditions off Florida. We have a storm that's unpredictable heading into an area of favorable conditions. Yet curiously the news media is downplaying the threat. So now, we have a general population that has been told no big deal in advance of an unpredictable storm.

The risk is that this gets to near FL and explodes. Overnight. Like Humberto off Texas some years ago. I'm not forecasting that. I'm not forecasting anything. Just pointing out that the ingredients are present for a big surprise and massive problems because of it.

[tropicwatch]

I am impressed how the convection has held together since about 2pm this afternoon. Not the dying convection to almost nothing we saw yesterday.

[ninel conde]

JB's always right of course.

Ive found he is often worng on the upside of development, but when he starts going negative he knows the jig is up, so to speak.

[ozonepete]

JB's always right of course.

LOL

[ninel conde]

I am impressed how the convection has held together since about 2pm this afternoon. Not the dying convection to almost nothing we saw yesterday.

lots of convection, but beginning to look rather linear.

[tatertawt24]

Is Erika trying to beat Elena in the most exhausting E storm to ever keep track of?

[ninel conde]

Elena of 85? That was a great one to have tracked.

[floridasun78]

i got feeling speeding low south Puerto Rico going die out replace by one east of Puerto Rico their no way low racing to west going main low i never seen that fast moving low like one south of Puerto Rico let see what nhc say 5am ... The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[northjaxpro]

My two cents, as an interested amateur, recorded for historical purposes.

This storm has all the hallmarks of a dangerous, surprise-type disaster waiting to happen. The storm is difficult to forecast. There is a giant convective ball literally in the center of the Caribbean Sea while the LLC supposedly is near Puerto Rico. That's hundreds of miles difference. There are arguments over multiple centers in multiple levels. The NHC goes out of its way to highlight the uncertainty, which is greater than normal. Summary: we don't know where it's going nor how strong.

Then, there's the wild card. The warm water and forecasted good conditions off Florida. We have a storm that's unpredictable heading into an area of favorable conditions. Yet curiously the news media is downplaying the threat. So now, we have a general population that has been told no big deal in advance of an unpredictable storm.

The risk is that this gets to near FL and explodes. Overnight. Like Humberto off Texas some years ago. I'm not forecasting that. I'm not forecasting anything. Just pointing out that the ingredients are present for a big surprise and massive problems because of it.

The post of the night so far! Great post !

[Evil Jeremy]

I was going to prepare tomorrow. But now I don't need to because the storm is a mess! Looks like my part of FL is getting nothing.

..... Seriously? Stay vigilant.

[floridasun78]

one thing weather station east coast of Puerto Rico report 59mph wind that far from south center