ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

[SapphireSea]

LOL this is awful trying to figure out. Might have to re-think my intensity forecast. will wait for the old DOC to see whats up. Might not make it to Hurricane...Hell, it might not make it after DR/Haiti

Definitely looks like it's a mess structurally. Many little vortexes embedded in the larger circulation; the convection outflow is also going to keep hurting chances for it to consolidate. But, food for thought is the old knowledge that weak open waves handle mountains better than closed lows. Is this set of info still true? I believe I read a paper some time ago about this with tropical systems. In any case I suppose it would not be Erika anymore; but operationally its still the same envelope.

[tolakram]

The far away view shows me (amateur) the the general center of circulation is heading past PR and into Hispaniola in generally a west / north of west direction.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html

[LarryWx]

IF Erika hits the CONUS as a TC, it would be the one that reached TS intensity the furthest east per records (47.7W) since 1899 during a strong El Nino that subsequently hit the CONUS.

I'm curious how they know the historical data on this that far out in the ocean prior to the satellite era.

A good number of storms, especially fish storms, had to have been missed before satellites. It largely relied on ship data out in the open ocean though recon started before satellites. But just within the satellite era (six strong El Ninos), the furthest east a TC became a TS and later hit the CONUS was 1965's Betsy (63.4W). Erika would obliterate that with its 47.7W if it were to hit the CONUS as a TC..

[Steve]

It's like this. No one is a bigger fan of Joe Bastardi than I am (though I refuse to pay for their service). He taught me more about the tropics and pattern recognition than anyone. And he is very serious in his research. %#*+ I even quoted him today. But it's 100% take it with a grain of salt. In the last couple of days, he had no problem with an east of Florida bomb out, a potential major landfall and not much. Being able to wade through the tweets is key. He is as wrong as he is right. But like a certain Midwestern presidential candidate who will not be named due to the rules, if you give several different answers to the same question over a short span, you probably have a legitimate shot at getting it right with one of your given answers. The key for journalists, who in this case are played by weather info consumers, is not to lose sight of 1 out of 3 being 66% wrong and not forgetting. Sure, things change and there should be an allowance for an evolving forecast. But when an individual is as cocksure as he often can be, they get judged accordingly. In that regard, I'll be ignoring him the rest of Erika.

[tolakram]

live loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, this looks worse then last night even, just a big huge blob of convection. Even the last NHC advisory stated that it may not survive and this time I'm really listening to them.....

[Blinhart]

looking at these almost looks like it is moving a little bit of South of West.

[Hammy]

live loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

I know almost for sure that I'm going to regret saying this by tomorrow, but it looks like the vortex near PR -may- possibly be trying to take over as the main one, or at least in that vicinity, by watching low cloud motion.

Either way it doesn't bode well, as it's well removed from the convection and likely to go over DR in not too long.

[SapphireSea]

Gut instinct tells me to look at 16.5N and approximately 65.2W. Around between the two convective balls for a true center. Moving 275-280. One thing that stumps me is how its possible for such a large piece of convection to persist without some sort of low nearby. But, for now I agree with those that state that this thing is either A) Dead or B) On its final legs.

[Steve]

That's probably just a rotating vortex. NHC has been giving us until Sunday before intensification for the last 36+ hours. It's pretty clear that those thinking it would get going tonight would be premature. If it did, it was bound to find a way to get knocked back by just about every model but the GFDL which had what turns out to have been unreasonable and unreliable solutions. Expect some give and take over the next 2/2.5 days. After that is anyone's guess.

[AutoPenalti]

Is there so much shear that not even this storm can handle it?

[tolakram]

I hesitate to say anything just before the euro runs, but the 18Z HWRF didn't develop this (0Z is a weak TS), which tells me it picked up on something different, I just don't know what it is. Bad structure, bad upper air conditions, someone reminded it there's a giant el nino in the Pacific .... ??

[Steve]

Gut instinct tells me to look at 16.5N and approximately 65.2W. Around between the two convective balls for a true center. Moving 275-280. One thing that stumps me is how its possible for such a large piece of convection to persist without some sort of low nearby. But, for now I agree with those that state that this thing is either A) Dead or B) On its final legs.

I could be completely wrong, but I think it's partially shear induced which is why the majority of the energy has been trailing East of the center

[tolakram]

Closer radar loop (saved)

[ROCK]

That's probably just a rotating vortex. NHC has been giving us until Sunday before intensification for the last 36+ hours. It's pretty clear that those thinking it would get going tonight would be premature. If it did, it was bound to find a way to get knocked back by just about every model but the GFDL which had what turns out to have been unreasonable and unreliable solutions. Expect some give and take over the next 2/2.5 days. After that is anyone's guess.

Agree Steve with your JB comment though i like the guy because of our bodybuuilding relation. The dude a beast or was...

I also agree on the multiple vortex's rotating around. I thought that main vortax that was naked today was the one but now I dont think so unless its being drawn SW into the heavier convection.

[ROCK]

Closer radar loop (saved)

that vortax on radar running under PR looks to be fading fast...I dont think its the alpha male of centers IMO....

[HurriGuy]

ECMWF opens up to a wave after hitting the D.R.

[SapphireSea]

Gut instinct tells me to look at 16.5N and approximately 65.2W. Around between the two convective balls for a true center. Moving 275-280. One thing that stumps me is how its possible for such a large piece of convection to persist without some sort of low nearby. But, for now I agree with those that state that this thing is either A) Dead or B) On its final legs.

I could be completely wrong, but I think it's partially shear induced which is why the majority of the energy has been trailing East of the center

I would normally agree, but shear induced convection will normally have abnormal outflow from them; On top of the fact that its usually sporadic and ragged and very very short lived; These are large balls of energy that have persisted for some time around the vicinity of our "storm". But, I will take your answer as a possibility as I am stumped to explain how its possible. Perhaps it may be lower convergence related as well.

[TimeZone]

This thing is a mess. I honestly think it's dying.

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