ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

#2081 Postby **Steve** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:00 am

Hey Rock. Good to see you up late. I got work for 8 so it's about bedtime. But I'll look forward to your European runs when I randomly wake up at 4 or 5 am.

#2082 Postby **Nederlander** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:00 am

AutoPenalti wrote:Is there so much shear that not even this storm can handle it?

No. Or at least I don't think the shear has been causing much of an issue over the last 24 hours or so. I think maybe a combination of some moderate shear with its fast forward motion prevented her from ever getting truly stacked. We are now seeing the consequences of that. It's almost like the "core" is confused. I am giving her time though. That's way too much convection out there to be written off. She will get her act together.

EDIT: And then I check out IR and well.... ewwww... But until the NHC changes their tune then I am still not writing her off...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

ROCK · #2083 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:03 am

Steve wrote:Hey Rock. Good to see you up late. I got work for 8 so it's about bedtime. But I'll look forward to your European runs when I randomly wake up at 4 or 5 am.

yeah I am staying up,,,,out 30hrs....weak and going over DR. thats going to hurt. :lol:

ROCK · #2084 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:03 am

Steve wrote:Hey Rock. Good to see you up late. I got work for 8 so it's about bedtime. But I'll look forward to your European runs when I randomly wake up at 4 or 5 am.

yeah I am staying up,,,,out 30hrs....weak and going over DR. thats going to hurt. :lol:

#2085 Postby **Steve** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:06 am

SapphireSea wrote:
Steve wrote:
SapphireSea wrote:Gut instinct tells me to look at 16.5N and approximately 65.2W. Around between the two convective balls for a true center. Moving 275-280. One thing that stumps me is how its possible for such a large piece of convection to persist without some sort of low nearby. But, for now I agree with those that state that this thing is either A) Dead or B) On its final legs.

I could be completely wrong, but I think it's partially shear induced which is why the majority of the energy has been trailing East of the center

I would normally agree, but shear induced convection will normally have abnormal outflow from them; On top of the fact that its usually sporadic and ragged and very very short lived; These are large balls of energy that have persisted for some time around the vicinity of our "storm". But, I will take your answer as a possibility as I am stumped to explain how its possible. Perhaps it may be lower convergence related as well.

Fair point. I don't know for sure either, but with the big push from the east that has moved Erika so fast over the last week or so, but with all the energy trailing East despite the low level flow, that energy has to be in the mid levels. And with the organization and repeated bursts of the large balls of energy you referenced, but east of the circulation, it seems that the lift has to be coming from the West or Southwest which is where we know the mid and upper level shear was coming from. Then again, I'm also stumped and not a scientist, so I'm open to plausible ideas.

#2086 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:11 am

Speed this up:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-62&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

I believe the swirl is the dominant center and based on the latest Euro the whole sha'bang is headed toward Hispaniola.

ROCK · #2087 Postby **ROCK** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:14 am

I think a LLC is consolidating to the SW of PR....JMO but that is what I am seeing. Still though it looks like DR is in play...

Hammy · #2088 Postby **Hammy** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:15 am

Looks like this will in fact be going over the Dominican Republic, as all models now show this to some degree. Unfortunately, and I was hoping I was wrong for this reason, this opens up a major threat for mudslides and flooding on the island.

txwatcher91 · #2089 Postby **txwatcher91** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 1:26 am

Looks like the "old" eddy/LLC is rotating wsw to sw now around what appears to be a new larger center forming and moving NW?

Hurricane Alexis · #2090 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 2:33 am

The northern vort should run in to the DR in a few hours. Seems like its going to cross a wider strip of land unless it somehow moves NW and into the ocean sooner.

Aric Dunn · #2091 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:29 am

yeah this done for.......

Aric Dunn · #2092 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:31 am

just could not consolidate enough.. maybe the remnants might regenerate,,

#2093 Postby **Nederlander** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:yeah this done for.......

Not that I really know what I am tracking, but overall movement looks to be W or WSW? Almost looks like it wants to pass south of Hisp.

Disclosure: These are very untrained eyes and I am finding it very hard to pick up any defined circulation on IR..

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#2094 Postby **Extratropical94** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:52 am

#2095 Postby **jlauderdal** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:53 am

Aric Dunn wrote:just could not consolidate enough.. maybe the remnants might regenerate,,

new track big rain maker for the whole penninsula even as a an open wave...looks very slow once hits the penninsula..nhc being generous on intensity but they really have no choice at this point...models a huge bust, my posted forecast from 24 hours ago busted completely on track and intensity

#neverforgeterika

#2096 Postby **NDG** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:53 am

El Niño wins again, going back to bed, she's done.

#2097 Postby **Nederlander** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:56 am

Dare I say the HWRF is the model of the year so far? It did well with Danny and I believe one of the only models to not develop Erika...

Hispaniolan · #2098 Postby **Hispaniolan** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:58 am

Good morning everyone!
Just saw the models, and they all seem to agree that Erika will be crossing Hispaniola in just a few hours.
The current track reminds me of several GFS runs from monday, when Erika was just Invest 98L.

jaxfladude · #2099 Postby **jaxfladude** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:02 am

Wow. What a turn of events. Sad to hear of deaths from this system. Hope no more to come.

#2100 Postby **NDG** » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:05 am

Nederlander wrote:Dare I say the HWRF is the model of the year so far? It did well with Danny and I believe one of the only models to not develop Erika...

Not in my books when for so long it was forecasting Erika to to track north of PR and becoming a monster just east of FL.

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