Tropical Wave moving near the African Coast (Is Invest 99L)

[galaxy401]

This is a different wave than what Gusty posted a couple days ago. Is this the one models are showing developing off Africa?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erika, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be possible
through the middle of next week while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Siker]

This is a different wave than what Gusty posted a couple days ago. Is this the one models are showing developing off Africa?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Erika, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the coast of Africa on
Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be possible
through the middle of next week while the system moves westward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Negative, the GFS keeps developing this with little support from the Euro. The one the Euro is hankering comes off in about 6 days.

[Extratropical94]

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off of the west coast of
Africa on Saturday a few hundred miles east-southeast of the Cape
Verde Islands. Some slow development of the disturbance will be
possible through the middle of next week while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
over the weekend. Some slow development is possible through the
middle of next week while the system moves west-northwestward near
the Cape Verde Islands at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Siker]

Both the GFS and the Euro now develop this into a tropical storm impacting the Cape Verde islands by Sunday night.

[emeraldislenc]

what is the future path?

[Siker]

what is the future path?

Likely early recurve, big weakness in the Central Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
about to move off of the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands at
about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[emeraldislenc]

Thanks for your info about the early recurve I guess that is why is will start moving wnw and not west when it leaves Africa!

[Extratropical94]

This is Invest 99L now.

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