ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2321 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 4:59 am

06z GFS; +48hr

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2322 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:00 am

06z GFS; +72hr

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2323 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:02 am

06z GFS; +96hr

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2324 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:07 am

06z GFS; +120hr

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2325 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:15 am

06zGFS; +144hr

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2326 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:22 am

06z GFS; +168hr

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#2327 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:23 am

So who gave the GFS permission to show a run that dumps a foot of rain on FL...then hints at going back into the GOM?
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#2328 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:26 am

GFS 6z run shows a slight shift back to the east, showing Erika moving through and up the spine of the Florida peninsula, may be stalling a bit at the end of the run or hinting a southwest motion back into the GOM..
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#2329 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:31 am

drezee wrote:So who gave the GFS permission to show a run that dumps a foot of rain on FL...then hints at going back into the GOM?



Yeh really!

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2330 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:44 am

16 inches at Daytona Beach by 192 per 6z GFS....Yuck

so if Tropical Storm Fay and 1994 TS Alberto had a baby...it would be the 06z run on this morning's GFS...
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#2331 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:55 am

Yeah if the 6Z GFS comed to fruition, the flooding across the state will be potentially massive. GFS 6Z projecting up to 12 inches or more in sreas of NE Florida at the end of the run.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2332 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:55 am

Still hanging around 10 days from now.

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Re:

#2333 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:57 am

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah if the 6Z GFS comed to fruition, the flooding across the state will be potentially massive. GFS 6Z projecting up to 12 inches or more in sreas of NE Florida at the end of the run.

If this run plays out, the I would surmise local amounts to 2ft+
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2334 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 5:57 am

+240hr

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2335 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:06 am

The bad news with that picture, the center is still N of Orlando...it's still raining...
Yes, it is in La La land but fun to look at
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2336 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:09 am

Just for laughs. +300hr. It hangs around NE Florida long enough to migrate back to the Atlantic and develop.

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2337 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:11 am

+384hr

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#2338 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:15 am

Yeah, you are right Drezee. The steering will be so weak with the masdive blocking ridge that it id possible Etika will be meandering around North Florida through the end of the 240 hour forecast period. I just dp not want to think about the massive potential flooding that may happen with this system.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2339 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:28 am

06Z HWRF brings a TS into SE FL.
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#2340 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Aug 28, 2015 6:34 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:06Z HWRF brings a TS into SE FL.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=97

Looks like southern PBC...
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