ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Good morning everyone!
Just saw the models, and they all seem to agree that Erika will be crossing Hispaniola in just a few hours.
The current track reminds me of several GFS runs from monday, when Erika was just Invest 98L.

She will not make the track across Hispaniola, between the high terrain and even higher shear there will be nothing left, there's barely anything left of her this morning already.

[NDG]

This reminds me the events of Hurricane Ernesto '06
We were all waiting for a devastating hurricane to track across FL as it entered the Caribbean but shear and Hispaniola took care of him.

[Hurricane Alexis]

It's getting that classic tropical storm degenerating into a tropical wave look.

[drezee]

Based on recon, I almost feel like Erika has an elongated trough axis to the SW with an eddy "LLC" attached. She better get it right before the shear comes back. This is not a robust structure to tackle shear, let alone Hispaniola.

I think my post rains very true this AM...the Columbian heat low is abnormally strong this year. The easterlies are forcing convergence and thus thunderstorms, but relative pressures to the south will continue to try to open Erika. The physics and heat transfer will not allow the LLC to get away from that hot tower to the South. The models are clueless on this interaction. They will be until the other side of the Hispaniola. Funny thing is we are sampling the upstream Synoptics with recon, but ignore a major influence to the South.

[NDG]

It's getting that classic tropical storm degenerating into a tropical wave look.

Recon just found a closed circulation south of Mona's pass but very weak. Still not gaining much latitude, Hispaniola will destroy it.

[NDG]

Based on recon, I almost feel like Erika has an elongated trough axis to the SW with an eddy "LLC" attached. She better get it right before the shear comes back. This is not a robust structure to tackle shear, let alone Hispaniola.

I think my post rains very true this AM...the Columbian heat low is abnormally strong this year. The easterlies are forcing convergence and thus thunderstorms, but relative pressures to the south will continue to try to open Erika. The physics and heat transfer will not allow the LLC to get away from that hot tower to the South. The models are clueless on this interaction. They will be until the other side of the Hispaniola. Funny thing is we are sampling the upstream Synoptics with recon, but ignore a major influence to the South.

You bring up a great point.

[painkillerr]

Puerto Rico was a big miss! It detoured around the island.

[ninel conde]

just moved way way way too far south. Dont see how this ever crosses florida as a storm now. will be a fast moving wave headed west.

[drezee]

I am so fascinated by what has transpired over the last 18 hours. The so called center looked to be poised to ramp up...sucked into the convection and boom. That hot tower to the south cut off convergence and inflow and the convection collapsed. The eddy/center was shot out like a rocket to the west. In the last hour or two it has stalled to wait for the next burst to the immediate E and SE. It will probably get sucked in again. In fact this may be the last shot at going poleward enough to miss the great majority of Hispaniola. If it does not, then as I said earlier...if you mess with Hispaniola... you get the "horns"...

[NDG]

Check out the sounding from San Juan last evening when Erika was to SE of them, look at all the dry air over the Island, this had a lot to do with her LLC weakening last night.

[drezee]

Check out the sounding from San Juan last evening when Erika was to SE of them, look at all the dry air over the Island, this had a lot to do with her LLC weakening last night.

[url=http://s20.photobucket.com/user/ndgarcia/media/594989E2-2B57-47CA-BE4D-E7412DD93EBA_zpszodrqmud.gif.[/url]

Nothing like a dew point in the 30s at nearly 600mb to quench your thirst...

[Nimbus]

Looks like PR may get some needed rain as the southerly shear blows moisture from the remnants north.
No clue from the IR about the surface pressure gradient but it might be too broad and shallow to regenerate. The shear off SA is too strong for the mid level circulation to support anything at the surface ATM.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 280847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAIN STILL AFFECTING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 67.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning for the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of
Isla Saona.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long
Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

The Government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.

[CourierPR]

Looks like PR may get some needed rain as the southerly shear blows moisture from the remnants north.
No clue from the IR about the surface pressure gradient but it might be too broad and shallow to regenerate. The shear off SA is too strong for the mid level circulation to support anything at the surface ATM.

Let's be clear on this forum. Erika is still a tropical storm according to the NHC. We are not talking about "remnants".

[caneman]

That may be true CourierPR but looks like crap and is a TS in name only. That's my take. It hasn't even hit Dominican yet. Where is WXMAN57, I think 'It's Dead Jim' may be in order. In my opinion only!

[CourierPR]

That may be true CourierPR but looks like crap and is a TS in name only. That's my take. It hasn't even hit Dominican yet. Where is WXMAN57, I think 'It's Dead Jim' may be in order. In my opinion only!

In the NHC, I trust. With all others, I heed the personal forecast disclaimer.

[wxman57]

Center is quite poorly organized today. There's a god chance it dissipates soon. The threat of a hurricane landfall in Florida is significantly lower now.

[KBBOCA]

Fascinating WV loop from yesterday. Interesting jog around PR.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static//hurrican ... 015-wv.gif

[jlauderdal]

Fascinating WV loop from yesterday. Interesting jog around PR.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/static//hurrican ... 015-wv.gif

these systems hate land, we have seen these jogs before as they "bounce" of land masses....wxman57 warming up bones

[caneman]

That may be true CourierPR but looks like crap and is a TS in name only. That's my take. It hasn't even hit Dominican yet. Where is WXMAN57, I think 'It's Dead Jim' may be in order. In my opinion only!

In the NHC, I trust. With all others, I heed the personal forecast disclaimer.

and that is why I stated in my opinion only twice. I'm thinking my opinion will be right. It's dead Jim! But.......... I sure hopre the rainfall estimates don't come true. We still have lots of standing water from the last invest. We don't need more flooding, it wouldn't take much.

I'll add the disclaimer:

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.